The FF Stock Market Crash

[Brian H]

Actually it’s horribly ironic that the market has been crashed by a phony credit derivatives bubble. Now, revitalization in 5-7 years through an FF boom may be the best hope for the economy. God knows if the country will be recognizable or functional by that time, what with the massive subversion and government takeover under way.

[Rezwan]

So, basically anything that does not produce, market, or make production equipment for many other forms of energy.

Did you mean “Anything that DOES produce…”?

No, he’s saying that equipment etc. tied to other forms of energy generation will be obsolete, and so should be avoided.

Thanks for clearing this up.

It’s a strange boolean. Anything but x. Just avoid x, and you’ll be fine. OK! I’ll buy more shady derivatives – because it’s not x!

I thought perhaps he was thinking of the energy conversion equipment, and that we should invest in that, as he says:

FF-related stuff, of course. And electric utilities. Any industry that uses energy. Energy conversion

[Jerry]

Brian H wrote:

So, basically anything that does not produce, market, or make production equipment for many other forms of energy.

Did you mean “Anything that DOES produce…”?

No, he’s saying that equipment etc. tied to other forms of energy generation will be obsolete, and so should be avoided.

Thanks, yes.

In fact, it’s hard for an investor to find a “pure play” with the big diversified outfits. I expect even EXXXON to do little more than wobble. They all have nuclear components, so they’ll be jumping into FF with both feet.

As I’ve said. the change likely will be gradual.

[Jerry]

Rezwan wrote:

So, basically anything that does not produce, market, or make production equipment for many other forms of energy.

Did you mean “Anything that DOES produce…”?

No, he’s saying that equipment etc. tied to other forms of energy generation will be obsolete, and so should be avoided.

Thanks for clearing this up.

It’s a strange boolean. Anything but x. Just avoid x, and you’ll be fine. OK! I’ll buy more shady derivatives – because it’s not x!

I thought perhaps he was thinking of the energy conversion equipment, and that we should invest in that, as he says:

Yes. Gotta watch them derivatives! They will no doubt profuse exponentially. I hope the regulators will soon become sufficiently antiderivative so that we can integrate the technlogy safely.

[Brian H]

Jerry wrote:

So, basically anything that does not produce, market, or make production equipment for many other forms of energy.

Did you mean “Anything that DOES produce…”?

No, he’s saying that equipment etc. tied to other forms of energy generation will be obsolete, and so should be avoided.

Thanks for clearing this up.

It’s a strange boolean. Anything but x. Just avoid x, and you’ll be fine. OK! I’ll buy more shady derivatives – because it’s not x!

I thought perhaps he was thinking of the energy conversion equipment, and that we should invest in that, as he says:

Yes. Gotta watch them derivatives! They will no doubt profuse exponentially. I hope the regulators will soon become sufficiently antiderivative so that we can integrate the technlogy safely.
Hm, wasn’t aware that “profuse” was a verb! “Proliferate”, maybe? Another thing that might proliferate is manufacturing plants, once they are free to locate anywhere without the constraints of grid energy supply.

[Jerry]

Brian H wrote:

So, basically anything that does not produce, market, or make production equipment for many other forms of energy.

Did you mean “Anything that DOES produce…”?

No, he’s saying that equipment etc. tied to other forms of energy generation will be obsolete, and so should be avoided.

Thanks for clearing this up.

It’s a strange boolean. Anything but x. Just avoid x, and you’ll be fine. OK! I’ll buy more shady derivatives – because it’s not x!

I thought perhaps he was thinking of the energy conversion equipment, and that we should invest in that, as he says:

Yes. Gotta watch them derivatives! They will no doubt profuse exponentially. I hope the regulators will soon become sufficiently antiderivative so that we can integrate the technlogy safely.
Hm, wasn’t aware that “profuse” was a verb! “Proliferate”, maybe? Another thing that might proliferate is manufacturing plants, once they are free to locate anywhere without the constraints of grid energy supply.

Look at any businesses that stand to gain from cheaper energy. Not many will loose catastrophically from fusion. Most are diversified and in fact may be heavily vested in fusion by the time it comes online.

I think it will be the oil-producing countries, rather than than corporations, that will take the hit when oil prices fall. Some have invested in natural infrastructure and production unrelated to oil; others have not. In many, all the money has gone to the ruling families so that the general population has gotten little. Some, like Mexico, are deep in debt. That will require democratization under adverse circumstances to pull them out of it by developing other resources.

[JimmyT]

With regards to investments in a fusion economy:

I really believe that the motive fuel of choice in the short term will become compressed natural gas. This is gas that we won’t be using to power the grid or winter heating of commercial & residential buildings. (Electric heat with cheap electricity should be a no brain-er)

It seems like the “holy grail” of auto power is all electric vehicles. But there are some problems associated with that. Our current battery technology is just not up to the task. The battery technology which we do have is based on lithium batteries. And there just is not enough lithium available to build enough batteries for an automotive fleet. True, there are some advances which might occur which would make this argument void (like ultra-capacitors). But these advances remain to be seen.

The automotive industry could readily convert to building natural gas vehicles. The technology is well established. And home refueling equipment is already available. This does add a little bit to the cost of each automobile for the cost of the pressure tanks. But this is theoretically a one time expense for car owners. These tanks don’t wear out. So the sale price of the worn out autos should reflect a premium for the salvage value of the tanks.

Now, if I’m right about this. I wonder who makes those tanks?

Oh, and Brian. The cars will continue to belch forth carbon dioxide.

[Brian H]

JimmyT wrote:
…

Oh, and Brian. The cars will continue to belch forth carbon dioxide.

Excellent!
(See my sig.)

[Rematog]

I’d invest in air conditioning, lighting, pump manufactures, water treatment equipment companies (esp. reverse osmosis), battery companies (for all those electric cars), electrical equipment manufactures (transformers, transmission, solid state power controls, etc).

Things that people will want more of if the the cost of electric power is lower AND availability is nearly unlimited (in the long run). Electric power would no longer be a limiting resoure…it would be a manufactured good! What will be the market growth in Africa for air conditioning when there is cheap power available………

[dash]

Rematog wrote: I’d invest in air conditioning, lighting, pump manufactures, water treatment equipment companies (esp. reverse osmosis), battery companies (for all those electric cars), electrical equipment manufactures (transformers, transmission, solid state power controls, etc).

Things that people will want more of if the the cost of electric power is lower AND availability is nearly unlimited (in the long run). Electric power would no longer be a limiting resoure…it would be a manufactured good! What will be the market growth in Africa for air conditioning when there is cheap power available………

A major and exponentially growing power requirement is computation. Google’s distributed data centers, the internet, remote computing, all these 24/7 power hungry servers…they just suck up the juice.

The cost of the internet is mostly the electrical power required to run the infrastructure. With cheap/free power you can expect all sorts of interesting things in the computational arena.

There is an endless demand for supercomputing. I expect the future will have desktop computers being essentially dumb terminals, and computational resources will be delivered as a service. Bandwidth will be essentially free, what you’ll pay for is how much computation you used.

[Brian H]

dash wrote:

I’d invest in air conditioning, lighting, pump manufactures, water treatment equipment companies (esp. reverse osmosis), battery companies (for all those electric cars), electrical equipment manufactures (transformers, transmission, solid state power controls, etc).

Things that people will want more of if the the cost of electric power is lower AND availability is nearly unlimited (in the long run). Electric power would no longer be a limiting resoure…it would be a manufactured good! What will be the market growth in Africa for air conditioning when there is cheap power available………

A major and exponentially growing power requirement is computation. Google’s distributed data centers, the internet, remote computing, all these 24/7 power hungry servers…they just suck up the juice.

The cost of the internet is mostly the electrical power required to run the infrastructure. With cheap/free power you can expect all sorts of interesting things in the computational arena.

There is an endless demand for supercomputing. I expect the future will have desktop computers being essentially dumb terminals, and computational resources will be delivered as a service. Bandwidth will be essentially free, what you’ll pay for is how much computation you used.
Yes, and Google will take SUCH good care of your data … I suppose you could store locally and process remotely, but that’s not much of a wall, Chinese or otherwise, for those who value their privacy even a little bit.

[Aeronaut]

Brian H wrote:

I’d invest in air conditioning, lighting, pump manufactures, water treatment equipment companies (esp. reverse osmosis), battery companies (for all those electric cars), electrical equipment manufactures (transformers, transmission, solid state power controls, etc).

Things that people will want more of if the the cost of electric power is lower AND availability is nearly unlimited (in the long run). Electric power would no longer be a limiting resoure…it would be a manufactured good! What will be the market growth in Africa for air conditioning when there is cheap power available………

A major and exponentially growing power requirement is computation. Google’s distributed data centers, the internet, remote computing, all these 24/7 power hungry servers…they just suck up the juice.

The cost of the internet is mostly the electrical power required to run the infrastructure. With cheap/free power you can expect all sorts of interesting things in the computational arena.

There is an endless demand for supercomputing. I expect the future will have desktop computers being essentially dumb terminals, and computational resources will be delivered as a service. Bandwidth will be essentially free, what you’ll pay for is how much computation you used.
Yes, and Google will take SUCH good care of your data … I suppose you could store locally and process remotely, but that’s not much of a wall, Chinese or otherwise, for those who value their privacy even a little bit.

Thank goodness for paper and safe deposit boxes! Computers didn’t go mainstream until I was nearly 30, so one of my definitions of a ‘green’ computer could be alien to a lot of people.

With 64GB solid state drives going for around $150 in single pieces (pricewatch.com/hard drives), the electrical price of commercial and residential computing is going to plummet while effective speed skyrockets. I’m planning my next computer around 2 of these in a RAID o configuration so’s I can cheap the CPU and motherboard and probably never notice the rig’s not ‘state of the art’. 😉

[Brian H]

Aeronaut wrote:
…

With 64GB solid state drives going for around $150 in single pieces (pricewatch.com/hard drives), the electrical price of commercial and residential computing is going to plummet while effective speed skyrockets. I’m planning my next computer around 2 of these in a RAID o configuration so’s I can cheap the CPU and motherboard and probably never notice the rig’s not ‘state of the art’. 😉

We keep hearing about the imminent arrival of non-volatile RAM with speed comparable to volatile, and hence instant-on with full session restore. That’s what I’m holding out for. Of course, I won’t be able to afford it until it’s been knocked down into the used bins by The Next Big Thing, so I’m not sanguine, even with the exponential speed, we hear, of technological advances, of surviving until the day!

[Brian H]

JimmyT wrote: With regards to investments in a fusion economy:

I really believe that the motive fuel of choice in the short term will become compressed natural gas. This is gas that we won’t be using to power the grid or winter heating of commercial & residential buildings. (Electric heat with cheap electricity should be a no brain-er)

It seems like the “holy grail” of auto power is all electric vehicles. But there are some problems associated with that. Our current battery technology is just not up to the task. The battery technology which we do have is based on lithium batteries. And there just is not enough lithium available to build enough batteries for an automotive fleet. True, there are some advances which might occur which would make this argument void (like ultra-capacitors). But these advances remain to be seen.

The automotive industry could readily convert to building natural gas vehicles. The technology is well established. And home refueling equipment is already available. This does add a little bit to the cost of each automobile for the cost of the pressure tanks. But this is theoretically a one time expense for car owners. These tanks don’t wear out. So the sale price of the worn out autos should reflect a premium for the salvage value of the tanks.

Now, if I’m right about this. I wonder who makes those tanks?

Oh, and Brian. The cars will continue to belch forth carbon dioxide.

CNG has energy density problems, too. Plus, it’s very hazardous to handle and store (gasoline burns, NG explodes). And it makes car exhaust smell really bad. :-S

Nano-particle/wire electrodes and the new MIT channel design for slashing internal resistance should be able (soon) to produce batteries with up to 10X the energy (and power) density of current LiIon (the former is already far higher than ultra-caps’, which would require huge volumes and weights to match even the 200-mi range of current TeslaMotors cars with battery-only power).

As for batteries’ need for lithium, two points: The lithium is totally recyclable, so is not really ever ‘consumed’; and lithium (and boron, for that matter) will be cheaply available from seawater once FF-powered desalinization kicks in. I think the latter process will change all sorts of computations about where to get what resource (element) at what price. Mining may become obsolete! Make billions of years of crustal erosion work for you … :cheese:
Edit: Just re-reading the above, and it suddenly struck me how important the first few elements of the Periodic Table have become: H(1), Li(3), B(5); even He(2) and Be(4), the latter being a key construction metal for FF generators.

[Brian H]

Jerry wrote:
…

Look at any businesses that stand to gain from cheaper energy. Not many will loose [lose] catastrophically from fusion. Most are diversified and in fact may be heavily vested in fusion by the time it comes online.

I think it will be the oil-producing countries, rather than than corporations, that will take the hit when oil prices fall. Some have invested in natural infrastructure and production unrelated to oil; others have not. In many, all the money has gone to the ruling families so that the general population has gotten little. Some, like Mexico, are deep in debt. That will require democratization under adverse circumstances to pull them out of it by developing other resources.

Yes, read up on “The Devil’s Excrement” some time; it’s a term for oil invented by the first secretary general of OPEC–from Venuzuela, no less!! 😆
Here’s a link to an article about S. Korea vs. the ME, and the relative payoffs of brains and effort vs. oil and sloth: South Korea.

The need to leverage and engage the interest and brains and initiative and effort of the young in oil-producing countries in productive enterprises is absolute. Perhaps FF will reduce the “barriers to entry” to enough fields that they will get constructively involved, rather than looking for stuff to rip and blow up.

The same may well apply to the culture of nihilism and anomie and condescending post-modern deconstructionism in the West.

[Author]

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