Homepage Forums Spreading the Word Making the fusion case to Electric Car industry

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  • #10875
    Avatarzapkitty
    Member

    While waiting for feedback I’m making experimental cuts for a preliminary one-sheet layout… I’m thinking that we can get away with just one illustration: a simple graphic comparing current EV market growth estimates with with the market enabled by a global switch to EVs.

    That would be placed after the first paragraph.

    Then we explain how the success of one or more of the fusion contenders makes that growth possible.

    And then the need for investment.

    … back to the trimming… it’s gonna be brutal πŸ™‚

    #10877
    Avatarzapkitty
    Member

    This variant needs more trimming but this much allows a small but legible graphic…
    Edit 10/16/2011 05:20 PM: small stuff
    Edit 10/17/2011 12:02 PM: … nibble… shift… nibble… shift…

    UNLOCK THE EV MARKET – GET FUSION

    [em]The EV Market Is Gridlocked[/em]
    A serious constraint on EV market growth is the inability of the grid to support at-will recharging. Even optimistic growth estimates for renewables will still require rigid enforcement of off-peak recharging… and that hurts market growth and it will do so for decades.

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    [em]Fusion Unlocks The Market[/em]
    Yes, conventional wisdom has it that fusion is β€œhuge and expensive with results always decades away…” But fusion may now be much closer, much smaller and much cheaper.

    What has changed is that small companies are now investigating methods of avoiding the obstacles that hamper the “Big Fusion” projects. Several of these fusion contenders would use the same fuels at the same temperatures as the ITER and NIF efforts but in smaller, more manageable configurations. Other contenders are researching advanced fusion fuels at even higher temperatures in even smaller devices.

    And each of the contending fusion methods would result in smaller and cheaper commercial installations much sooner than the β€œBig Fusion” projects. And the contenders expect research results in years at most – not decades. Smaller, cheaper fusion power units. [em]These[/em] would be the units that could power up and expand the grid to handle a world full of EVs. And these small companies all have one thing in common: they need you.

    [em]Coffee, Tea… or EVs Everywhere?[/em]

    The research budget of a typical fusion contender is less than what a large corporation spends on coffee supplies but the funding for more agile fusion solutions has been nonexistent. The contenders need investment, especially investment from people who are not afraid to rock the twin boats of current government fusion research and current energy suppliers. Investors who’d like some answers within years, not decades.

    The potential payoff? Even the most basic form of fusion would solve EV power issues permanently and safely. Each successful contender would have its advantages and disadvantages compared to the others but any one of them would leave all non-fusion power sources in the dust. EVs would be everywhere because the power to charge them as needed would be everywhere.

    It is research and there can be no guarantees but diversifying investment into at least some of these companies could be worthwhile… because even one success will change the world.

    #10878
    AvatarBrian H
    Member

    Heh. The ‘coffee supplies’ comment was hyperbole (I think!) I have no idea if they spend millions per annum on coffee …

    #10879
    Avatarzapkitty
    Member

    Brian H wrote: Heh. The ‘coffee supplies’ comment was hyperbole (I think!) I have no idea if they spend millions per annum on coffee …

    Coffee supplies, and they definitely do… google “office coffee service”. It’s a necessary expense for enhancing employee productivity πŸ™‚

    http://www.vendingtimes.com
    (2008 figures)

    Per company average – $1,891,000
    19 percent of ompanies spend over $1,000,000
    15 percent of ompanies spend over $2,000,000

    (… adjusts drip rate of caffeine IV…)

    #10880
    Avatarzapkitty
    Member

    Ooops…

    Rezwan, what’s the tag?

    Just a society url?
    An invitation to a fusion klatsch at the event? (who buys the coffee?)
    A demand for a socialist revolution?

    #10881
    Avatarjjohnson
    Member

    Another interesting perspective in this discussion is Robert Bryce’s book, Power Hungry.

    In it he writes about the power industry, its dependence on gas, coal and oil, the problems with “green”power of most kinds, and thinks that the future lies with gas and fusion, but has no real timetable or plan. (Who could, looking at the progress in fusion over the prior 60 years?)

    His point is that the power generating system is working near capacity almost all the time now. The problem is not, he says, that people want energy. They want [em]power[/em], and they want enormous amounts of it. Energy is just energy, but what is needed is energy per second β€”[em] power[/em]. Only fusion is likely to have the energy density to be able to deliver sufficient power to meet the rising demand on electrical power of an increasing population, and he expects gas to increase its lead over the other, dirtier sources for the foreseeable future.

    What recourse does our energy industry, in practically every country, have in the event that electric automobiles suddenly go viral and they are sold as fast as factories can increase their production over several years? Right now, none. They are skating on thin ice, as it is. This could swamp the fossil fuel grid, with predictably adverse results. Successful completion of aneutronic fusion’s experimental stage looks right now to be more probable than other fusion experiments. Increasing fossil capacity does not seem likely to be able to rise to the challenge, if one looks at the lending industry and the bonds industry right now in this faltering economy.

    The points concerning small, local generators to supply demand at numerous points should resonate with the electric car industry. They know that they have to have convenient outlets almost everywhere. The fewer wires they have to string, the better. Even getting these fusion plants to serve neighborhoods or sectors of a city could allow most re-energizing to be done at home and places convenient to work and recreation areas, as well as in remote areas poorly served by the existing grid. No rights-of-way acquisition problems, no new lines and towers or conduits, etc etc. If this works, its future seems assured, as it solves so many problems at once.

    Jim

    #10882
    AvatarBrian H
    Member

    jjohnson wrote:

    If this works, its future seems assured, as it solves so many problems at once.

    Jim

    Yes, that’s what’s so incredible. For some/most people, literally “incredible” — they figure it’s “too good to be true” so diss it on principle!

    #10883
    Avatarzapkitty
    Member

    … objects in tandem mirror are closer than they appear…
    Edit: 10:11 AM …forgot to set indent on the flyer doc… 3 downloads already? smokin’… πŸ™‚

    THE EV MARKET IS GRIDLOCKED
    – GET FUSION –

    A serious constraint on EV market growth is that the grid cannot power a world of EVs recharging at will. Even optimistic growth estimates for renewables will still require enforcement of off-peak recharging. That will hurt market growth for decades.

    x ============insert graphic here============
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    [em]Fusion Unlocks The Market[/em]

    Times change. Fusion may be much closer, much smaller and much cheaper than many have thought. What is new is that small companies are now investigating various methods of avoiding obstacles that have hampered the “Big Fusion” projects. Several of these contenders would fuse standard fuels at standard temperatures but in smaller, more manageable configurations. Other contenders are researching advanced fusion fuels at even higher temperatures in even smaller devices.

    The result from a successful contender would be the sustainable, safe power of fusion delivered in small commercial installations much sooner. The contenders expect research results in years at most – not decades. These fusion power units could power up and grow a global distributed grid to handle a world of EVs. And these small companies all have one thing in common: they need you.

    [em]Coffee, Tea… or EVs Everywhere?[/em]

    The research budget of a typical fusion contender is less than what a large corporation spends on coffee supplies and yet funding for agile fusion solutions has been nonexistent. The contenders need investment, especially from investors who’d like some answers within years, not decades.

    The potential payoff? Even the most basic form of fusion would solve grid power issues permanently. Each successful contender would have its advantages and disadvantages compared to the others but any one of them would leave all non-fusion power sources in the dust. EVs would be everywhere because sustainable power on demand would be everywhere.

    It is research and there can be no guarantees but consider diversifying investment into at least some of these companies… because even one success will change the world.

    x ============insert tag here============
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    Attached files

    fusionflyer.doc (15 B) 

    #10884
    AvatarBrian H
    Member

    I’d be cautious about using buzz phrases like “agile fusion” without defining them. They cause unconsciousness and loss of interest!
    :shut:

    #10885
    Avatarzapkitty
    Member

    Brian H wrote: I’d be cautious about using buzz phrases like “agile fusion” without defining them. They cause unconsciousness and loss of interest!
    :shut:

    That’d be sad because just about anything other than ITER would be a more agile fusion solution πŸ™‚

    #10886
    AvatarIvy Matt
    Participant

    jjohnson wrote: What recourse does our energy industry, in practically every country, have in the event that electric automobiles suddenly go viral and they are sold as fast as factories can increase their production over several years?

    In China it is already becoming common for people to plug in their personal/family conveyance for the night. Not the conventional four-door sedan, of course, but rechargeable electric scooters are quite commonplace. I don’t know if any of the electric scooter companies would be particularly interested in investing in fusion, though. I imagine they’ll treat fusion power the same way the ISPs treated IPv6: they’ll use it when they need it. The obvious difference being that IPv6 was in existence, if not widely tested, well before it was needed, whereas we don’t yet have such a guarantee with fusion power. The other obvious difference being that it’s not the scooter companies’ business to supply the electricity for their scooters, although their sales would no doubt be affected in places where power outages were common.

    #10887
    Avatarzapkitty
    Member

    Even optimistic market projections have only ~20 percent EVs by 2030. That’s just from cost (which will go down) and range anxiety… which can be defined as being unable to recharge when you need it.

    And those projections handwave a populace compliant in an off-peak recharging regime. Most people are unaware that in a ~20 percent future the grid can’t recharge their EVs during the daytime while they are at work… and when they discover this that percentage goes down even further.

    Investing in inexpensive fusion contenders then becomes a smart move by those who have a stake in a rapidly growing distributed grid.

    Yes, fusion really would unlock the EV market.

    #10888
    Avataramanasleep
    Member

    There is an independant variable which will continue to prevent EV’s from penetrating fully, focus fusion or no: Battery charging rates. Currently, the most advanced batteries safe enough for consumer use cannot be charged quickly, regardless of power supply, with most taking hours to acquire a charge. EV batteries that can be charged fully in under 5 minutes are probably a necessary precurser to EV adoption by the world consumer.

    #10889
    Avatarvansig
    Member

    amanasleep wrote: There is an independant variable which will continue to prevent EV’s from penetrating fully, focus fusion or no: Battery charging rates. Currently, the most advanced batteries safe enough for consumer use cannot be charged quickly, regardless of power supply, with most taking hours to acquire a charge. EV batteries that can be charged fully in under 5 minutes are probably a necessary precurser to EV adoption by the world consumer.

    Have you heard of LiFePO4 batteries?

    Lithium Iron phosphate is quick charge, and safe enough to be approved for use in the OLPC programme. http://www.olpcnews.com/hardware/power_supply/olpc_power_boost_lifepo4.html

    It has an energy density slightly less than other lithium cells, but is really very safe.

    #10890
    Avatarzapkitty
    Member

    amanasleep wrote: There is an independant variable which will continue to prevent EV’s from penetrating fully, focus fusion or no: Battery charging rates. Currently, the most advanced batteries safe enough for consumer use cannot be charged quickly, regardless of power supply, with most taking hours to acquire a charge. EV batteries that can be charged fully in under 5 minutes are probably a necessary precurser to EV adoption by the world consumer.

    Nope! More like 30 minutes (Leaf) to 45 minutes (Volt) from empty to full charge… [em]if[/em] you have the power.

    And you can “top up” when you get to work or other destinations… you don’t need to drain the battery pack first before you recharge it.

    Got Grid? πŸ™‚

    The current EVs can already take a full charge much faster than the 4-6 or 8 hours often quoted.. it’s just that the fast charging gear needs ~220-240 volts at ~40 amps and thus the companies are aiming [em]those[/em] chargers at commercial installations or aftermarket accessories for residential users.

    And the reason for that is, of course, the current state of the grid.

    Got Grid?
    Get Fusion

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