Viewing 8 posts - 16 through 23 (of 23 total)
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  • #10085
    BreakableBreakable
    Keymaster

    JimmyT wrote:

    Projections and predictions are easy to make, but they’re only as good as the facts they are based on. ..

    ..
    So from a forecasting standpoint: our short term predictions tend to overstate progress. But long term our predictions tend to understate progress.
    I would tend to agree with Aaron on this one. You can clearly see from mid-age posters that a lot of over-optimistic predictions failed to materialize
    (flying cars, automated houses, futuristic cities, outer-planet colonies),
    but they would have materialized in case fission became the source of plentiful, cheap and safe power, but it did not.

    #10087
    AvatarJimmyT
    Participant

    Breakable wrote:

    Projections and predictions are easy to make, but they’re only as good as the facts they are based on. ..

    ..
    So from a forecasting standpoint: our short term predictions tend to overstate progress. But long term our predictions tend to understate progress.
    I would tend to agree with Aaron on this one. You can clearly see from mid-age posters that a lot of over-optimistic predictions failed to materialize
    (flying cars, automated houses, futuristic cities, outer-planet colonies),
    but they would have materialized in case fission became the source of plentiful, cheap and safe power, but it did not.

    There is no disagreement here. The time intervals implied by Clark’s equations are arbitrary. Clearly the magazine covers and posters were overly optimistic. But perhaps we are still in that early stage where the linear view does surpass reality on some time frame. Perhaps looking ahead one century is not enough.

    Cheap plentiful safe power is the goal here. So again, maybe they are just premature. As for the flying cars. Well, I just can’t wait for them to come crashing down on us surface dwellers as some nitwit is talking on his/her cellphone while flying his/her car. Some of the predictions were just not thought out.

    #10128
    AvatarJimmyT
    Participant

    JimmyT wrote:

    Projections and predictions are easy to make, but they’re only as good as the facts they are based on. Facts become outdated very quickly. Any projection involving human behavior is even more difficult. Predicting the arrival of future technology, and what its impact will be at that time, is even more prone to extreme error, but it’s fun to try anyway. The pace of innovation is accelerating, so the world will be very different in 30 or 50 years. I can’t say how or how much it will be different, but it will be like the early 1900s compared to now. We are just scratching the surface of nano-tech, gene manipulation, fusion, brain mapping, social communication, robotics and AI. With even moderate advances in each of those areas, the future possibilities are awesome.

    For years I have quoted or referred to an idea first put forward by the late Arthur Clark:

    He basically stated that our view of the future tends to be linear. That is, we tend to foresee as much change in the next 50 years as has occurred in the last 50. The next 10 as has occurred in the last 10… etc.

    But that’s not the way that progress occurs. It occurs exponentially. And the interesting thing about that is… If you take any linear equation starting at the zero zero axis and overlay it with any exponential equation. For at least a little bit the exponential equation will lie underneath the linear one. But eventually the exponential equation will always cross over and become greater than the linear equation.

    So from a forecasting standpoint: our short term predictions tend to overstate progress. But long term our predictions tend to understate progress.

    Just came across this video which illustrates how change is indeed occurring exponentially. http://youtu.be/cL9Wu2kWwSY

    #10129
    AvatarAaronB
    Member

    About 20 years ago, I predicted that someday you would be able to watch a movie on demand. Today we have that technology, with cell phones, GPS, cameras and video conferencing included, not to mention thousands of apps that I didn’t predict. Yesterday I saw the new Nintendo 3DS, which is a 3D portable game device without the need for special glasses or anything. Now they’re starting to use smart phones to pay for things at the store instead of using a credit card. Where might it lead?

    I predict that policemen will soon use a smart phone that takes your picture and uses facial recognition software tied to a database to identify you in real time. It will also have a touch screen that can take fingerprints and compare them to a database. While they’re at it, it will probably have retinal scan capabilities too. There are also USB-stick blood tests that you can do, so that might be included.

    Everyone will be issued a personal IP address at birth, and a secure chip will be burned into your personal device’s memory, and only you will be able to operate it. Wi-fi will spread, and internet access will become a “right”, controlled and provided by the government through a network of telecom companies.

    You’ll be able to ask your device questions verbally, and it will pull the answer from the “cloud”, with multi-media presentations automatically generated. If you’re giving a presentation, the device will wirelessly send the info to the projector and display it for everyone, or to others’ devices who are listening in from different parts of the world. These will be 3D presentations too, by the way.

    Body suits with electrodes all over them will provide tactile sensations and muscle movements for games and other things as part of virtual reality. When you get hit or “fragged” in a game, your body will feel it and react.

    Music theory, psychology, and language theory will be programmed, and a #1 song will be computer generated, both music and lyrics. Heck, the voices and instruments will be computer generated too, and you will be able to customize the voice accents or instruments in real time.

    People who drive their own cars will be considered dangerous, or at least old fashioned. Mowing lawns will be done by Roomba-like robots that will navigate and charge themselves.

    Recycling robots will dismantle our garbage and prepare it for reuse. Plasma torches will sort out the rest.

    Electronic virus and bacteria detectors will be implanted, and help your body instantly recognize and defeat infections. A virus identified in Africa or Asia will be added to the daily update that goes around the world. Anyone with the device implanted will be immune.

    Robots will perform operations with minimal human assistance. With on-board cameras, ultrasound imaging, laser cauterization, and sterilizing equipment, operations will be fast, safe, and have fast recovery times. Nano-operations will repair damaged nerves, reshape corneas, remove plaque from arteries, repair bones, and dissolve tumors.

    Based on all your conversations and activities that are recorded and analyzed by your personal device, you will be matched up with compatible people and social networks. You’ll be able to contact and know where your friends are at any given time, as well as their plans for the future, unless they restrict you. Businesses will give discounts if you hold meet-ups at their locations.

    That’s enough for now, but there is great potential for change for education, emergency responders, military, science exploration, transportation, custom manufacturing, entertainment, and sleep. In 20 years, let’s have a meet-up at the Disney Orbiter and see how close I was. 🙂

    #10130
    AvatarJimmyT
    Participant

    I saw a report recently on about an experiential advertising program which they are developing in England. It involves those LED bill boards, but with a twist. As you walk by cameras figure out who you are using facial recognition, then it figures out just what add to play to you based (I suppose) on your previous buying patterns.

    #10135
    Avatarannodomini2
    Participant

    JimmyT wrote: I saw a report recently on about an experiential advertising program which they are developing in England. It involves those LED bill boards, but with a twist. As you walk by cameras figure out who you are using facial recognition, then it figures out just what add to play to you based (I suppose) on your previous buying patterns.

    As in Minority report, they also use positionable directional speakers to specifically target audio as well.

    #10182
    AvatarBrian H
    Member

    Did You Know?
    And if not, why not? %-P 😆

    #10187
    AvatarJimmyT
    Participant

    Brian H wrote: Did You Know?
    And if not, why not? %-P 😆

    Thanks Brian, I think that this one’s even more informative than the first one!

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