[Aeronaut]

We’re much like a small orchestra getting ready to tune for a concert, PD. The way I read the political climate over here, we need to make professional politicians at least unofficially aware of what FF can do for- or to- them and their constituents. You have credibility and contacts in that arena that non of the rest of us have. Chin up, old chap.

[Aeronaut]

Phil’s Dad wrote: Maybe in the long stretches between mile-stones we can turn the question around.
What have FFS members done today to promote the cause? :wow:

Excellant question, PD. As a FFS FaceBook page admin, I’ve been slacking. I just posted an overview discussion that could benefit from some intelligent comments, and even some links, diggs, stumbles, that sort of thing, if anybody’s so inclined. I’m planning to start another discussion over there tomorrow about why FF is so small, light, and economical. Hopefully these should all make sense to laymen.

btw- I appreciate your sense of humour.

[Aeronaut]

Rezwan wrote: Hi y’all!

I always find your posts very informative and fascinating. You seem to have an intimate working knowledge of utility and power industries and comments about your credentials are scattered throughout the posts. Is it possible to summarize this credential information in your bio?

Change bio at your control panel – see top nav line.

Also, trying to think of a way to harness this experience not just in forums, perhaps give blog posting privileges to explain various aspects of the industries involved. Otherwise it’s just me, thinking of writing a summary and linking to these cool forum discussions.

Thanx, Rezwan, but all that hardware is laying all over the countryside for anybody who’s tuned in to observe. 🙂 Too bad it’s tacitly illegal to photograph things you want to improve…

Microsoft is giving away Office 2010 Beta at http://technet.microsoft.com/en-us/evalcenter/ee390818.aspx. It’ll run until Oct 31,2010, but not on Macs.

The built-in program called One Note is a fantastic tool for condensing ideas. You can copy an entire thread into a single page with lots of margin space for selected copies, notes, etc. I think this will make everybody’s life a lot easier.

[Aeronaut]

JimmyT wrote:

Just for clarity; are we talking a fusion confidence monitor or a FF confidence monitor? 8-/

Breakables Polywell link is very helpful.
(Having said that and just to be pedantic; if the theory is wrong it will not work however many times you try. So the probability does not approach 1 just by doing it over and over. If the theory is right it will work the first time you get the engineering right too
– but I digress) 🙄

I think the questions ought to include two things.

Firstly a step by step approach similar to that suggested by chrismb in the Polywell link with a probability at each stage.

Step / Probability

Will it get built? / 100%
If built will it achieve pinch? / 100%
If pinch will it fuse “low temperature” fuels / 99%
If so will it fuse p11B / 98%
If so will it overcome x-ray cooling / ?
If so – and so on

The second factor is time (back to the markets?)

How confident are you that proof of concept will be achieved in 10 yrs, 5 yrs, 1 yr
How confident are you that commercial FF generators will be available in …
How confident are you that they will be widely adopted in…

etc.

Of course a short education in progress to-date would have to be included prior to the question as most people haven’t even heard of it. :down:

Just as a relevant aside; I was chatting to a physicist in his lab at the UK National Physical Laboratory on Monday and Focus Fusion came up (well… y’know… I might have slipped it into the conversation). His specialty is fine measurement of temperature using sound so FF was a bit outside his brief. None the less his view was “it is thirty years away in the laboratory.” His big idea at the moment is to make energy so expensive that market forces drive emissions down to an acceptable level.
Much to do. :-S

I am confident that once we check off a couple of more items in Phil’s Dad’s list that funding for the next step will become available. Money will follow experimental results.

I agree. We already have 2 successful experimental machines that have confirmed the predictions of our in-house theory development (theoretical progress is accurate but doesn’t sound substantial to my gut). This lets us plot the Plan and milestones on a ray (lines are a fixed length :down: ). This graphic would set the stage for 2010 to prove that funding FF has produced and continues to produce concrete results aimed at achieving practical fusion long before 2015. This would make the educational part more compelling, especially as we fill in a lot of dots next year.

As for government funding, this seems to be a restatement of the ‘How to get a loan- prove you don’t need it’ banking cliche. One of our local hamlets just turned down a Stimulus Fund project to repave ~1 km because they could do it quicker and cheaper without the government meddling. I’m looking to the private sector, iow. Making the case that doing the right thing has enormous economic, environmental, and PR benefits for early adopters. But outstanding benefits for the mainstream, as well.

Until then we have to soldier on. This means that we must have a vision, even if others label it a dream.

[Aeronaut]

While the site “ain’t broken”, I think the word would spread a lot faster if first timers saw a clean design with the Assembled Multitude of Content (anything in this vast library) less than 4 clicks from the landing page, setup to teach the vocabulary needed to use search effectively.

You would also benefit from improved flow analyses- where does the traffic go, and how does it get there when there are more than one route. Another way to look at it is comparing the landing pages of Google vs Yahoo.

[Aeronaut]

I mention taper because its part of the patent, which may or may not be present in this embodiment. Ditto for the rod angles. I like the concept of a smooth and continuous current sheath from arc to pinch, I’m just having problems visualizing an unruly plasma behaving this nicely on most shots. Wouldn’t the Keech Ring also raise the electrical potential needed for reliable ignition?

[Aeronaut]

Henning wrote:

Rather, we’d need to experiment with pulse rate, cooling, electrode life tradeoffs, overhaul scheduling and costs, etc. to determine how many of our stackable modules are optimum for, say, repowering a 1.6GW coal-fired plant.

That’s actually engineering. What we need to establish, is the correct order of magnitude of energy output compared to energy input. The goal for FoFu 1 is to show that QT > 1 (thermal energy output bigger than energy input). Next step is to show that’s QE > 1 (electric energy output bigger than energy input) with FoFu 2. Only after that we can start twiddeling with pulse rates and stuff.

Excellent points, Henning, and I agree. I’m more at home designing and building things than I am in a science/lab environment.

[Aeronaut]

The diameter and length of both cathodes and the anode has a significant effect on plasma formation and runout velocity. Another factor is that the rods have a taper, and may not be precisely perpendicular to the base. This angle is to help impart angular momentum, with the Blake Coil as a backup.

I know I’d rather manufacture a single tubular cathode than 16 or more tapered ones. The biggest design challenge right now is the computer simulation software.

[Aeronaut]

Augustine wrote:

Welcome Augustine. 🙂

I hope however that a neutron count will not figure significantly as a sucess criteria. :sick: Ideal result? 0
(Although I understand the inevitability of it with Deuterium)

The neutron count seems to be more of a smoking gun. Of course we all want p-B for our reaction but i’ll take the neutron count of a Deuterium reaction. Once you show that you can fuse Deuterium all you need to do is establish how the machine scales. The rest is engineering.

Welcome aboard, Augustine.

My understanding is that the deuterium phase is more about calibrating the diagnostic equipment and proving the basic machine and its procedures. The Texas results are the baseline, iow. Once we have that, we can continue the methodic progression with this third machine.

The boron fuel is an entirely different critter, with much greater energy requirements, so I don’t see the deuterium tests as a scalability indicator. Rather, we’d need to experiment with pulse rate, cooling, electrode life tradeoffs, overhaul scheduling and costs, etc. to determine how many of our stackable modules are optimum for, say, repowering a 1.6GW coal-fired plant.

[Aeronaut]

Brian H wrote:
However, the prices would start to drop immediately once FF viability was confirmed. Almost all purchasing is done on a future anticipated demand and supply basis — traders and refiners best guesses.

I’d expect a very short ‘gasp’ in securities prices, but the real action would be in the one to ten year energy sector futures prices. This would be your barometer for when to short the fossil fuels.

[Aeronaut]

Gloating makes us sound like arrogant bastards.

[Aeronaut]

Brian H wrote:

…

What happens if Congress doesn’t extend the $20-per-megawatt-hour Production Tax Credit for wind — set to expire December 31? On a project this size, that’s an $80,000 deduction every hour at full capacity.

Then you’ve got a dead duck. It would be hard to go without a subsidy. But they’ll probably pass it.

[/i]

The frankness and audacity of this guy is so extreme that it is amusing.

What will be even more amusing when the duck takes flight and then croaks in midair because FF has rendered it beyond the help of even the most generous possible subsidy.

Anybody want to prepare by setting up a turbine scrap dealership? :coolgrin:

I don’t see it as being anything to gloat about. When you think about how to integrate a brand new technology into the grid, we would have to build a track record of reliability by shadowing more and more of a gas-fired peak-load plant. The utility would likely see it as reducing their exposure to supply fluctuations.

Turbines are politically attractive because of the high maintenance and replacement parts industry that they are building. Lots of jobs.

[Aeronaut]

Henning wrote: I believe you’re thinking of inverters (DC->AC), not of rectifiers (AC->DC). That’s actually the beauty of FF, because you already get a inverter for free. Output capacitors are already required, otherwise you’re getting only impulses of a few milliseconds.

Or are you’re thinking of eliminating those output capacitors? And replacing them with what? Inductors of the same size? Not much gained (but might be cheaper).

I’m thinking of computerized control circuit which switches the several capacitors onto the grid depending on demand and circuit phase. You still need an inductor for leveling out the edges, but you need them anyway. So it’s an computerized inverter. I think the modern ones are computerized anyway.

You can compare this to modern automobiles with their computerized ignition systems compared to primitive distributors in cars twenty and more years ago.

Or if it’s of Rematog’s big-scale utility (200 FF generators), you might orchestrate them to output something that looks like a sine wave. You then don’t even have something with a stable frequency, it’ll look much more like you’re Windows Task Manager with two processor cores running on 50% speed (because the process running is only built for one processor). The load jitters between them two.

I hadn’t thought of phase-shifting, but I love the idea in larger installations like utilities. It gets even better since the switching will probably be banked SCRs to start with. Pulsed Direct Current, iow. We would be able to easily design an array of sources and grounds so that the entire system energy flows, including profit, are dynamically reconfigured as often as a million times per second. Redesign is as easy as rewriting a truth table or database.

Yes, I’d use capacitors only where needed on the output side. We are required to use a coil (think transformer primary) to recover the ion energy, why not send the profit down the line in as straight-forward a manner as possible? I do see a need for input caps so that we really do have a control system.

[Aeronaut]

Henning wrote: You actually don’t need a multiplicator of 60Hz (or for sensible areas of the world 50Hz) of shot frequency to get AC. So a shot frequency of anything like 512Hz and 435Hz the next minute works. Energy is stored in capacitors and can be drained in a controlled fashion. You’ll probably need to double the number of output capacitors to get it running smoothly, switching between the banks at each shot. But that gives you the advantage that you’re utilizing the generator only for the amount of energy required.

No, a stable frequency, particularly a multiple of the powerline frequencies of 100hz or 120hz (full wave) is not required. But it does reduce design complexity and production cost by using the FF output pulses directly into AC. The alternative is to run it through an extremely high powered rectifier.

[Aeronaut]

Brian H wrote:

There are a few dozen PF rigs around the world, and people who are quite capable of picking up the ball if Eric’s idea succeeds. And the incentive to do so is HUMONGOUS! Given a few million $$ it would take a few months to crank out numerous versions of this rig and start a-zappin’. The project would be delayed maybe a year, and be completed abroad. And I think the gov. knows it.

I think much of the reason that FFS hasn’t been funded is that it’s too tiny. There’s no porkulus pay-off for spending on it, and no mega-project to generate pricey jobs and kickbacks. Hence, politicians are uninterested. Phil’s Dad — “Am I wrong?” 😉 :coolsmirk:

Certainly there is no great “Public Sector” job creation in this. Lot’s of good honest engineering jobs though.

I think the current low level of interest stems partly from a feeling that it is too good to be true (which will go away very rapidly after proof of concept), partly from the big central system paradigm as you say. Politicians love to control things. This thing could be tricky to control once it’s out there. An energy policy of “everyone’s got one in their garage” is a bit scary for control freaks. They would also have to admit they had been backing the wrong horse for the last n years.

On the other hand, if this thing delivers, it will be wonderful for the balance of payments and the government that is seen to be implementing it will be national (international) heroes. [with everyone except big energy companies] That’s quite attractive to politicians of all colours.

By the way, what’s a kickback. :smirk:
Why, kind of a backwash; a payment from the payee to the payer for the privilege of being paid. Capisce?

The jobs I’m talking about are the in-development/research stage jobs. Tokamaks etc. are pretty good at spreading the cash around a local or regional economy, and pleasing constituents. The FF research cell, not so much. And it’s hard to ramp up; duplicating efforts would have limited value, and still be small potatoes. There’s no big money in or out opportunity till it’s pretty much “in the can”. And then the benefits are spread far and wide; not something a local tax base will see unique payback for. It would take enlightened self-interest, for hivin’s sake! Which is political unobtainium.

As for the ‘balance of payments’, you might like to look over ClearMarkets.com’s John Tamny’s views on the matter. Quite iconoclastic. There are no trade imbalances; the term is a nullity. But even in orthodox terms, it’s kind of hard to see how it would end up; the FF will be made available world-wide simultaneously (any qualified mfr. who pays for a license can begin cranking out prefab FFs and installing them). So “comparative advantage” is limited to the time lags between when each jurisdiction begins to use it, and since lead times are so short even a late starter can catch up. So it will come down to WHAT you do with the power. Quite tough to project all that.

I like the recent comment that just about any refrigerator factory can make FF generators. Announcing something like 500 to 1,500 new jobs over the next year or few would do wonders for the enlightened self-interest angle at the man on the street level. They can take this to the bank. Lots of political capital available, too.

Enlightened corporate self-interest applies only to visionary companies who are willing to fund an aggressive engineering program in return for setting (and branding) the standards, as well as being the first to take an entire enterprise such as GE or Exxon-Mobil off-grid and off-fossil fuels in one bold stroke. This could turn one license of ten into over 90% initial market share of what will appear to be an insatiable market for several years. This means they could sell $250k modules for over $1M FOB factory for at least a year, while the rest of the runners get their shoes tied.

Technically, this is not a monopoly, due to at least 10 licenses being available. It will shatter the “who knew what, when” paradigm, replacing it with “who had the brass”.

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