Polywell

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It semms polywell doesn’t work as expected…

http://www.talk-polywell.org/bb/viewtopic.php?p=83302#83302

Hopfully FF does, but can it be economecly?

[Tulse]

break wrote: It semms polywell doesn’t work as expected…

I’m not sure where you get that from the posts at talk-polywell. As I understand it (and keep in mind that the research conducted by EMC2 is currently under US Navy contract, and thus officially confidential), the presumption by knowledgeable outsiders is that the research has found a few bumps, as one expects whenever theory is exposed to testing, but that at this point there are no obvious show stoppers. The Navy has just extended the contract for the research, which would generally seem to be a good sign.

[Ivy Matt]

I’m guessing the reference is to this:

we hear – some ‘unexpected’ results during scaling experiments – posher e/i-guns required, etc.

From the latest quarterly update we know EMC2 modified the electron guns. Here is the full quote from EMC2’s 4Q 2011 Recovery.gov update for context:

During 4Q of 2011, EMC2 has modified the electron injectors to increase the plasma heating. The higher plasma density in WB-8 prompted the need for higher heating power. We plan to operate WB-8 in high beta regime with the modified electron injectors during 1Q of 2012.

I suppose the “unexpected results” refer to the “higher plasma density”. I think ordinarily that would be considered a good thing, even if it required upgrading one’s equipment. Nevertheless, I don’t have enough of a background in Polywell theory and/or plasma physics to understand exactly what is implied by the latest quarterly update. A new update should be posted on April 30, which [em]may[/em] shed more light on EMC2’s progress.

More to the point, the Navy has prepared a contract extension for EMC2. According to my interpretation of the contract schedule, testing of the WB 8.0 (D+D) device is due to be completed by September 30 of this year, and testing of the WB 8.1 (p+B11) device is due to be completed by March 31, 2014. If, as is rumored, the contract extension will be signed by the end of this month, then I would take that as a sign that the Navy feels the current experiment is at least performing well enough to merit continued funding; otherwise they would not feel obliged to extend the contract.

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we will see…

I am sceptical…

[Tulse]

break wrote: we will see…

I am sceptical…

What facts have been reported that make you skeptical? Or are you doubtful of the whole approach in general?

I would think that the continued involvement of the US Navy suggests at least that there have been no obvious show-stoppers found to this point, which surely would be good news.

[break]

Tulse wrote:

we will see…

I am sceptical…

What facts have been reported that make you skeptical? Or are you doubtful of the whole approach in general?

I would think that the continued involvement of the US Navy suggests at least that there have been no obvious show-stoppers found to this point, which surely would be good news.

I am not skeptical in the sense that i am thinking it isn’t serious sience. Of course it is not pseudo sience. I don’t say it is like Rossi’s eCat, so “skeptical” is a hard word regarding to polywell.

PS: If something is wrong with my english, please tell me. I have to learn still…

[ikanreed]

Since you asked for help on your English: pseudoscience is one word.

On point: If not the underlying theory, what’s left to be skeptical of? The motives? The engineering skill?

[zapkitty]

If you mean that you are unsure that the result of the research will be a usable power source then that can be phrased a bit differently in English… as skeptical is usually used in reference to claims by people.

A short mnemonic is: You can be doubtful about physical outcomes but you should be skeptical when people are involved 🙂

[Ivy Matt]

I am both doubtful and hopeful—especially when it comes to Polywell and Focus Fusion. 😉

Unfortunately, it seems we’ve already seen the last of the quarterly updates from EMC2. April 30th has come and gone, and there is no new report from EMC2. Hopefully we will find out soon if the Navy has signed a new contract to fund the project. Of course, a new contract would probably not be funded through the Recovery Act and, therefore, would not have the quarterly reporting requirements that EMC2’s previous contract did, so we wouldn’t hear any news unless and until either EMC2 or the Navy felt like reporting it. (Apart, of course, from how much money the new contract is for, and what, in general terms, is its purpose.)

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Is there any prove EMC2 have got a new contract? Any serious source? Or only rumors?

[Ivy Matt]

Well, I’d consider Navy people a fairly good source of rumors, but now that it’s official, we don’t have to rely on rumors, informed or not:

FBO

NECO

In sum, on May 3 EMC2 was awarded a $5.3 million contract (N6893609C0125) for work over the next two years. The scaling seems to be holding up, but it seems they need a better power supply for the electron guns. I assume EMC2’s work over the next two years will include further experimentation on WB 8.0 (D+D) and the construction and operation of WB 8.1 (p+B11). If all goes well, I imagine they’ll be awarded a much larger contract for a demonstration reactor (possibly D+D to begin with), to be completed after another three years or so. At least, that’s my understanding from reading the thread on Talk Polywell. Unfortunately I can’t access .mil domains from the Middle Kingdom. For those who are having trouble with the NECO link, there’s also a Google Doc here:

Google Doc

But I can’t access Google Docs, either. *shrug*

[Joeviocoe]

https://www.neco.navy.mil/synopsis_file/N6893609C0125 _Redacted_JA.pdf

[Joeviocoe]

On the information dissemination front… The Focus Fusion society is Lightyears ahead of Talk-Polywell. Being funded by the Navy means that we only get periodic updates and those are VERY vague and missing the good details. And the lack of information seems to fuel more comments and debate. They have longer discussion threads it seems… and also they attract some of the fringes of science too.

I would certainly like to see an old-fashioned race between Focus Fusion and Polywell. But I don’t think Poylwell is considering Aneutronic seriously just yet. They want a working powerplant using D-T first. But also, they are both on different scales of power output. Focus Fusion will be capped at 5MW while Polywell might exceed 100MW.

[zapkitty]

Joeviocoe wrote: https://www.neco.navy.mil/synopsis_file/N6893609C0125 _Redacted_JA.pdf

You need to enclose urls containing spaces within url tags…

https://www.neco.navy.mil/synopsis_file/N6893609C0125 _Redacted_JA.pdf

… also…

https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=172f53639c2b7cef2fd02a775f42816c&tab=core&_cview=0

[Tulse]

Joeviocoe wrote: I don’t think Poylwell is considering Aneutronic seriously just yet. They want a working powerplant using D-T first.

Frankly I think that is a very wise strategy for them — the first “alt-fusion” approach to reach breakeven will be a big winner, even if it is with more “conventional” radioactive reactions that are nonetheless far easier to produce in principle than pB11. And the Navy is used to dealing with fission reactors, so the radiation from a DT reactor would likely not be an issue.

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