House Committee hearing on Fusion

[Rezwan]

Ormond Otvos wrote: Sounds like the peer review and press release path is the one for Focus Fusion.

That is made clear to me from this hearing. Also in communications with the committee, wherein I was asked:

Do you have a unique way to get there that has been validated through peer review in physics and fusion journals outside of the aneutronic community?

The reality of the scientific method is that it takes place in a social/political/human world. Much as we’d all like to just do things in the most straightforward way possible, test out the cheapest, most plausible (or least unplausible) alternative first, and move up to the big, unwieldy things, the matter gets stuck in procedure/tradition.

The “aneutronic community” (AC?) is referred to pejoratively in that quote. Apparently, the AC is not part of the big boys fusion club at this time. That club is pretty well organized. Well connected, and they cooperate enough to get government to underwrite the compiling of a “state of the research” document, and this document is what the quest for fusion is limited to, and all the govt can see.

Take a look at it – (ReNeW project site has links to the pdf you can download). The document they produced spells out all the problems/challenges the official fusion world has mapped. They call them “Thrusts”. Interesting imagery. Militaristic, swordplay? So, the Aneutronic community could use a document like this, to map out the rest of the fusion challenge in terms the political world can relate to. It needs to be created/compiled by the collaboration of the disparate fellows of the AC, outlining the AC’s thrusts.

So, to sum up, no big newsflash – the AC needs to get more organized. And an object to organize around could be an AC ReNeW doc, put together with the cooperation of hundereds of AC scientists, who, hopefully, have a list a mile long of peer reviewed docs.

Anyway – I’ve set up a tentative section to begin compiling this. It’s probably misnamed. “Plasma Network”. Need to brainstorm on that as well. As you see, that section is just a placeholder for now. https://focusfusion.org/index.php/site/category/C66/

[Tulse]

How much need is there for government involvement in FF? I understand that funding is always tight, but presumably some replicable, demonstrable success (not necessarily even peer-reviewed) should ideally be sufficient to bring in additional private investment. Some of the many huge advantages of FF is that, if it works, it doesn’t need billions in funding to demonstrate that, and its practical implications are immediate.

I suppose what I’m saying is that it seems to me the model for aneutronic fusion isn’t something like the Apollo mission or the Manhattan Project, but more like the Wright brothers or James Watt — these are efforts that can demonstrate success with relatively little in the way of resources, and their success has immediate practical commercial impact. As far as I know, neither Watt or the Wrights published peer-reviewed pieces during their research or required huge government attention — instead, their success was its own proof. I think that if FF or Polywell or Tri-Alpha can demonstrate an over-unity device, the world will (as the saying goes) beat a path to their door. (This is also true for the alt-but-not-aneutronic approaches, such as Helion and General Fusion.)

Is this a hopelessly naive view that is out of touch with funding realities?

[Ormond Otvos]

Well, I’ve seen Al Gore yakking three times this week, and fusion, DD or FF is conspicuously (to me) from his very well rehearsed speeches.

Gore’s level of expertise seems to be stretched, but if someone with a degree and peer backup were to make application to him for funds, not necessarily to get funds, but to pique his interest, pointing out where they are on the Gantt chart, possibly he’d get off his “nuclear=waste” dime, and start thinking about stable plasmas, boron, linear generators, x-ray energy collection, and local burst energy sources feeding ultracaps for transit and charging stations, which seem to me some key hot points right now.

And yet, when Letterman needled him about being the first green energy billionaire, Gore responded starchily that if he didn’t invest, the carpers would call him a hypocrite. Gore is not poor, and he’s heavily invested in startups.

Warren Buffett just paid 34 billion for BNSF railroad, which is now dual track nationwide. Wouldn’t a FF fit in a locomotive, handy peak output for crossing the mountains (6000 hp peak)?

[belbear]

My favourite quote from the House hearing, from chairman Bard:

“It kinda blows your mind we’re going through all that trouble to heat water”

[Rezwan]

Tulse wrote: How much need is there for government involvement in FF? …

I suppose what I’m saying is that it seems to me the model for aneutronic fusion isn’t something like the Apollo mission or the Manhattan Project, but more like the Wright brothers or James Watt — these are efforts that can demonstrate success with relatively little in the way of resources…
I think that if FF or Polywell or Tri-Alpha can demonstrate an over-unity device, the world will (as the saying goes) beat a path to their door.

Polywell is asking for $200 million. Trialpha for 20 at least. LPP needs $4 million for proof of concept and they don’t have the full amount yet – they’ve started the experiments without the full comittment of $ under the “if you build it, they will come” theory. They’ll need another $20 mil to crank out commerical reactors. Money is very tight, and I’d say the more support from all quarters, the better. Also, it’s insurance against suppression – the more people are invested in making alternative fusion happen, the better.

As far as I know, neither Watt or the Wrights published peer-reviewed pieces during their research or required huge government attention — instead, their success was its own proof.

Watt benefited from an astute business model, and he also had government help in the form of the equivalent of a department of defense contract. Indirectly. The story (per Andy Kessler, “How We Got Here”) is that John Wilkinson, Iron Master of Shropshire, had a precision cannon-boring tool. The best in the world, could make effective cannons with narrow “windage”, the gap between cannonball and barrel. The less the gap, the farther the cannonball goes. John hasn’t patented this tool so no one can copy it. It’s his trade secret. So, John gets a big contract from King George, who wants to kill Americans (rebels in the colonies). John needs energy to blow the bellows to burn the high grade coal to get quality iron for his cannons. He tries out Watt’s steam engine and finds that it’s weak. The cylinder leaks steam with every stroke, robbing it of power. He takes it apart and realizes that it’s a cylinder issue. And he, due to cannonball precision for killing requirements, is the cylinder master. So he recast the cylinder using his tool, and it improved the machine 4to 5 times. E.g., 40 Horsepower instead of 8. So, anyway, Wilkinson, with his govt. defense contract, partnered with Watts, and the industrial age took off.

Any which way….

[dash]

Rezwan wrote: The story (per Andy Kessler, “How We Got Here”)

That looks like an interesting book, I ordered a used copy on Amazon. Thanks for the tip.

The “Look Inside!” pages remind me of James Burke’s Connections.

[Rezwan]

dash wrote: That looks like an interesting book, I ordered a used copy on Amazon.

Note, the book hasn’t been peer reviewed.

[dash]

Rezwan wrote: Note, the book hasn’t been peer reviewed.

Even better.

[Phil’s Dad]

Tulse wrote: How much need is there for government involvement in FF?

Apart from Rezwan’s comments there is the regulatory side of government. Like it or not they could squash the thing flat if they are not on board.

[Phil’s Dad]

Ormond Otvos wrote: Thanks for the corroboration. Your response is exactly what I’m looking for, and what I think will give focus fusion (FF) credibility and thus funding.

If it helps I am an elected politician with an environment brief (ducks to avoid flying vegetables). I would be happy to act as a sounding board to see if you have used “sufficiently simplified language”. 😛

[Brian H]

Tulse wrote: How much need is there for government involvement in FF? I understand that funding is always tight, but presumably some replicable, demonstrable success (not necessarily even peer-reviewed) should ideally be sufficient to bring in additional private investment. Some of the many huge advantages of FF is that, if it works, it doesn’t need billions in funding to demonstrate that, and its practical implications are immediate.

I suppose what I’m saying is that it seems to me the model for aneutronic fusion isn’t something like the Apollo mission or the Manhattan Project, but more like the Wright brothers or James Watt — these are efforts that can demonstrate success with relatively little in the way of resources, and their success has immediate practical commercial impact. As far as I know, neither Watt or the Wrights published peer-reviewed pieces during their research or required huge government attention — instead, their success was its own proof. I think that if FF or Polywell or Tri-Alpha can demonstrate an over-unity device, the world will (as the saying goes) beat a path to their door. (This is also true for the alt-but-not-aneutronic approaches, such as Helion and General Fusion.)

Is this a hopelessly naive view that is out of touch with funding realities?

I’m with you on this, Tulse. Be REALLY careful what you ask for! Government involvement (money) comes with VERY LOUD “calling of the tune”. And fine print. Kiss control good-bye.

And anyone worried about hostile interests getting their hands on the reins should also stay the $*&W;(#! away from the AlGore. FF will reduce his billion-dollar GreenWash edifice to rubble.

If you really want to help, help Eric in his efforts to petition and press and inspire the X-Prize foundation to establish a Fusion Q-Prize. First one to Unity gets $10 million! Or whatever. Here’s your list of people to bug: http://www.xprize.org/about/board-of-trustees . :cheese: :coolsmile:

[belbear42]

Reproduction of claimed results can be very time-consuming as well, if you can find anyone who is WILLING to reproduce them,
Maybe by institutions who DO have a DPF that meets or is adaptable to the necessary specs for p-B11 fusion, I doubt it exists at all.

It’s not like cold fusion in a fish tank with some electrodes, and debunking is cheaper than building a new DPF… (oh nooo, it’s from the one who says the big bang never happened, that CAN’T be correct!)

[Brian H]

belbear42 wrote: Reproduction of claimed results can be very time-consuming as well, if you can find anyone who is WILLING to reproduce them,
Maybe by institutions who DO have a DPF that meets or is adaptable to the necessary specs for p-B11 fusion, I doubt it exists at all.

It’s not like cold fusion in a fish tank with some electrodes, and debunking is cheaper than building a new DPF… (oh nooo, it’s from the one who says the big bang never happened, that CAN’T be correct!)

There are a few dozen PF rigs around the world, and people who are quite capable of picking up the ball if Eric’s idea succeeds. And the incentive to do so is HUMONGOUS! Given a few million $$ it would take a few months to crank out numerous versions of this rig and start a-zappin’. The project would be delayed maybe a year, and be completed abroad. And I think the gov. knows it.

I think much of the reason that FFS hasn’t been funded is that it’s too tiny. There’s no porkulus pay-off for spending on it, and no mega-project to generate pricey jobs and kickbacks. Hence, politicians are uninterested. Phil’s Dad — “Am I wrong?” 😉 :coolsmirk:

[Phil’s Dad]

Brian H wrote:
There are a few dozen PF rigs around the world, and people who are quite capable of picking up the ball if Eric’s idea succeeds. And the incentive to do so is HUMONGOUS! Given a few million $$ it would take a few months to crank out numerous versions of this rig and start a-zappin’. The project would be delayed maybe a year, and be completed abroad. And I think the gov. knows it.

I think much of the reason that FFS hasn’t been funded is that it’s too tiny. There’s no porkulus pay-off for spending on it, and no mega-project to generate pricey jobs and kickbacks. Hence, politicians are uninterested. Phil’s Dad — “Am I wrong?” 😉 :coolsmirk:

Certainly there is no great “Public Sector” job creation in this. Lot’s of good honest engineering jobs though.

I think the current low level of interest stems partly from a feeling that it is too good to be true (which will go away very rapidly after proof of concept), partly from the big central system paradigm as you say. Politicians love to control things. This thing could be tricky to control once it’s out there. An energy policy of “everyone’s got one in their garage” is a bit scary for control freaks. They would also have to admit they had been backing the wrong horse for the last n years.

On the other hand, if this thing delivers, it will be wonderful for the balance of payments and the government that is seen to be implementing it will be national (international) heroes. [with everyone except big energy companies] That’s quite attractive to politicians of all colours.

By the way, what’s a kickback. :smirk:

[Brian H]

Phil’s Dad wrote:

There are a few dozen PF rigs around the world, and people who are quite capable of picking up the ball if Eric’s idea succeeds. And the incentive to do so is HUMONGOUS! Given a few million $$ it would take a few months to crank out numerous versions of this rig and start a-zappin’. The project would be delayed maybe a year, and be completed abroad. And I think the gov. knows it.

I think much of the reason that FFS hasn’t been funded is that it’s too tiny. There’s no porkulus pay-off for spending on it, and no mega-project to generate pricey jobs and kickbacks. Hence, politicians are uninterested. Phil’s Dad — “Am I wrong?” 😉 :coolsmirk:

Certainly there is no great “Public Sector” job creation in this. Lot’s of good honest engineering jobs though.

I think the current low level of interest stems partly from a feeling that it is too good to be true (which will go away very rapidly after proof of concept), partly from the big central system paradigm as you say. Politicians love to control things. This thing could be tricky to control once it’s out there. An energy policy of “everyone’s got one in their garage” is a bit scary for control freaks. They would also have to admit they had been backing the wrong horse for the last n years.

On the other hand, if this thing delivers, it will be wonderful for the balance of payments and the government that is seen to be implementing it will be national (international) heroes. [with everyone except big energy companies] That’s quite attractive to politicians of all colours.

By the way, what’s a kickback. :smirk:
Why, kind of a backwash; a payment from the payee to the payer for the privilege of being paid. Capisce?

The jobs I’m talking about are the in-development/research stage jobs. Tokamaks etc. are pretty good at spreading the cash around a local or regional economy, and pleasing constituents. The FF research cell, not so much. And it’s hard to ramp up; duplicating efforts would have limited value, and still be small potatoes. There’s no big money in or out opportunity till it’s pretty much “in the can”. And then the benefits are spread far and wide; not something a local tax base will see unique payback for. It would take enlightened self-interest, for hivin’s sake! Which is political unobtainium.

As for the ‘balance of payments’, you might like to look over ClearMarkets.com’s John Tamny’s views on the matter. Quite iconoclastic. There are no trade imbalances; the term is a nullity. But even in orthodox terms, it’s kind of hard to see how it would end up; the FF will be made available world-wide simultaneously (any qualified mfr. who pays for a license can begin cranking out prefab FFs and installing them). So “comparative advantage” is limited to the time lags between when each jurisdiction begins to use it, and since lead times are so short even a late starter can catch up. So it will come down to WHAT you do with the power. Quite tough to project all that.

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