Fuel Cell Makes Good Commercially

[Aeronaut]

I just saw this on 60 Minutes, and have linked to their transcript. It’s a fuel cell that runs on a number of gasses, including methane, and cuts the cost of electricity 50% if you have to buy the gas from PG&E.

Google bought the first ones around 18 months ago. Ebay, FedEx and WalMart are among this guy’s existing customers at $700k before 50% tax incentives. Truly mass produced household units are expected to cost around $3k. Maybe Brian’s tagline is on to something…

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/02/18/60minutes/main6221135.shtml?tag=contentMain;cbsCarousel

Fueling one of these in space wouldn’t be cost effective, but at first glance this looks like it could take the developed world by storm. Maybe the world’s going to evolve into a big chicken ranch to fuel them?

[Aeronaut]

Short term, this is going to be a very good thing for the world, and we can learn a lot from Bloom’s playbook. How fast they ramp up production and bring the price down (remember there’s a VC and IPO pressures involved) is going to keep this a corporate appliance to reduce energy bills, not eliminate them. So the really important questions are about the Bloom’s economic life, resale value, and scrap value.

The bright side is that they’re giving the world hope that energy costs can be dramatically reduced and distribution can be as local as every home.

Update: These links give a much clearer picture of the energy and VC landscape-

http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/top-ten-high-concepts-in-2009/
http://www.gtmresearch.com/report/grid-scale-energy-storage-technologies-and-forecasts-through-2015

Greentech Media seems to be relying heavily on VC industry PR and filings, so we’re under that radar. They also mention that Silence As A Business seems to have been mastered by 2 VC firms.

Bottom line seems to be that the Bloom Box is more efficient on a grid scale since it bypasses the steam cycle. It still makes ~1,000 C temperatures, and nobody seems to be talking local energy efficiency or actual CO2 output. The financial breakeven is also far longer than we project for FoFu2. As you read through the bottom link you’re going to see all sorts of markets for FF to shore up the grid.

The rollout is what’s really impressive on the Bloom Box.

[Breakable]

Gas fuel cells usually make a small amount of electricity and (comparably) a large amount of heat, so usually are efficient only in combined heat applications. Of course they can pay-off eventually, but not much sooner than a solar/wind installation. The advantage compared to such systems is that you have reliable power, and no need for batteries (in case heat is constantly used). The disadvantage is that they require fuel, which will probably get more expensive over time. Still it is not a contender for fusion, especially FF, because of the price difference, and carbon emissions.

[Aeronaut]

I don’t remember seeing radiators or hearing about it being used as a CH&P Combined Heat & Power plant. It probably is running some type of combined cycle internally.

[Brian H]

Well, here’s the Physorg article, including the 60 Minutes video. And here’s their site, where today the big “rollout” is due to occur.
It’s called the “Energy Server”, by the way.

The claim is that on test installations by companies like Google, WalMart, EBay it uses about ½ the fuel an equivalent generator would. It can also be run in reverse to store energy.

As for carbon dioxide emissions, that’s a non-issue, of course, since the entire AGW premise is hallucinatory.

As far as “footprint” and cost, FoFu will beat both by an order of magnitude. No problem-O!

[Breakable]

Someone did some calculations here:
http://www.reddit.com/r/technology/comments/b62fl/bloom_energy_data_sheet_anyone_else_do_the_calcs/
The operation costs including amortization can be as high as 38 cent per kWhr and even more if you include maintenance.
Running costs (gas) only 5 to 8 cents per kWhr, so basically it heavily depends on the price of the box and how much it will be used. I am not sure how much profitable it can be at the target cost of 3k usd (after a number of years), but it does not seem groundbreaking.

[Brian H]

Breakable wrote: Someone did some calculations here:
http://www.reddit.com/r/technology/comments/b62fl/bloom_energy_data_sheet_anyone_else_do_the_calcs/
The operation costs including amortization can be as high as 38 cent per kWhr and even more if you include maintenance.
Running costs (gas) only 5 to 8 cents per kWhr, so basically it heavily depends on the price of the box and how much it will be used. I am not sure how much profitable it can be at the target cost of 3k usd (after a number of years), but it does not seem groundbreaking.

That’s very high! The $3K, btw, is projected eventually for a household unit (2 each in the US, 1 for Europe, ¼ for Asia). The commercial units are around $800K for 100KW, which is supposed to come down with volume. Over $400 million has been invested to date.

FF will eat its lunch.

[Brian H]

Well, a year later, here’s an update:

This February, the Bloom Box is back in the news for a few reasons…

First: It said it would offer its fuel cell in a no-money-down service contract. Basically, you rent one and the company serves as landlord.

Second: It was reported by Dow Jones VentureWire that the company has raised another $100 million, this time from Kleiner Perkins, NEA, and Morgan Stanley.

(Kleiner Perkins, by the way, counts John Doerr, Al Gore, Ray Lane, Vinod Khosla, and Colin Powell among its team members and partners. You may have heard of some of the startups they funded: Google, Invisalign, Autotrader.com, Chegg.com, Friendster, Blue Nile, and Zagat.)

Bloom’s Energy Servers use solid oxide fuel cell technology to constantly produce electricity using either renewable or fossil fuels. Sources say the “servers” sell for $12.50 a watt: $10 a watt for the box and $2.50 for the warranty.

But you can get a 30% federal tax credit worth $3.75 a watt and in California, they’ll throw in $2.50 a watt if you use natural gas — or $4.50 a watt if you use renewable gas.

Customers are already excited about how much they can reduce electricity costs. Just look at this list of customers: Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), Staples (NASDAQ: SPLS), Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE), Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY), FedEx (NYSE: FDX), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Safeway (NYSE: SWY), Kaiser Permanente…

With a list like that, it won’t be long until the early investors that have already ponied up $500 million earn their money back through either IPO or acquisition.

This is from a site promoting investments. IMO, the cost/Watt, whether paid upfront or ‘smoothed’ by rental, is extremely high. You’d have to need independent power a lot to pay it. Of course, with NG in the $4 range (and falling, for the foreseeable future), you’d also have to figger the efficiencies and marginal cost/kwh, and then project what volume of use would be required to get down out of the $$ stratosphere. Maybe it will make sense for some users.

Until FF blows it all away, of course. :cheese:

[mjv1121]

The numbers don’t really seem to add up. And what if you don’t have a mains gas supply? Could well be a similar story to wind and solar – starts off sounding great, but when you look at more closely…..it ain’t!

[Aeronaut]

The real story here is between the lines. It’s about how CBS gave them a story on their 60 Minutes program, which was designed to sell this device. The combination of theory, production plant, (ok, they only showed part of the factory-maybe the tech/QA section), and list of customers was very impressive. And it got a lot of searches the next morning, according to Google Trends. Editorial content in mainstream media sure beats advertising!

[Author]

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