Reply To: Remnant heat of Focus Fusion

[Brian H]

vansig wrote: Estimated depletion, of both oil and coal, seems to match. Looks like ~54 years, or so, is all you get, from both.
— http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proven_oil_reserves#Estimated_reserves_by_country

If demand softens, because alternatives become competitive, then this time frame extends.
But if extraction becomes cheaper, then the price drops, demand strengthens, and the time frame contracts.

As fusion is deployed, it will meet energy demand increases first, so i don’t see the above numbers changing a lot, near term.

Since pricing is a function of expectations, I think the simple fact of FF’s existence will drive down the price of oil. It will take time to replace much demand, but the incentive to do so will be powerful. E.g.: when the new LiIon battery tech comes on-line and BEVs have a 2-3,000 range, it will take a dedicated bang-bang lover to spend money on an ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) car. And given range availability, the argument for haulage by electric vehicle is very compelling. (Short-haul BEV truck drivers around the Port of LA LUV-LUV-LUV their new rigs, even tho’ they’re only good for 50 miles or so, loaded, so far.) Imagine the nation supplied by fleets of silent, fast, smokeless 18-wheelers!