Reply To: Cap and Trade

[HermannH]

Brian H wrote:
The logic is: CH4 does the warming, CO2 does the plant growth. As for CO2 warming, my assertion is that EVEN IF it were true, it would be a good thing. But since hoomon CO2 contributions are about 0.125% of GH gas in the atmosphere, it is entirely irrelevant. Diurnal and seasonal swings are much wider than that, and so you could double-or-nothing all we do and not be able to detect the effect.

Interesting logic, but before we can apply it we need to agree on some underlying facts.

According to this http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/co2_data_mlo.html CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere have risen from 320 ppm to 380 ppm in the last 50 years alone. These are actual measurements not predictions or speculation. The pre-indusrial level has been estimated to have been around 280 ppm. The oceans also absorbed a significant amount of CO2 in that time frame. That is a 20% increase since 1960 and I don’t think that anybody seriously disputes the numbers nor the claim that the lion share (if not all) of the increase is the result of human activity. This number is 160 times higher than your stated value of 0.125% human contribution (unless you only count the air that we exhale). In the graph you can also see that seasonal swings are much smaller than the long term trend and diurnal variations are invisible. Where do your numbers come from?

According to this http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas the warming effect of CO2 is three times higher than that of CH4, given their current concentrations in the atmosphere. These are numbers that are based on well known chemical and physical properties of the molecules and their distributions in the atmosphere. These properties are measured in a lab, there is no climate modeling involved. So I don’t understand how you can postulate that CH4 does the warming, and CO2 does not.

I am glad to see you agreeing that global warming (or the reversal of a cooling trend) is the result of having increased concentrations of a greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. That is exactly what the climatologists are saying, except they also include CO2! So how come they are frauds?