[Rematog]

Eric,

I was not predicting (formal) export restrictions. What I was saying is that domestic needs and politics will mean that the vast majority of the FF modules will, in the first 5-10 years, stay in or near their country of origin (say, within the EU).

This implies there will be a lag before the developing world gets a LOT of FF modules.

Oil price decreases (I doubt if it would be a dramatic as a

[Rematog]

Eric,

No, I didn’t assume US would be only producer. But did assume production of significant numbers only in economically advanced countries. By this I mean US, Canada, Europe, Japan, Korea, China. Possibly some other countries such as Australia, Taiwan, India, Brazil, South Africa, etc. would produce some, but not enough to be major exporters. My point is that all the main producers (and the smaller ones as well) would “consume” almost all of the FF modules they produce domestically in the first 5 to 10 years. Only after that would the developing world start to see major deployments.

Rematog

[Rematog]

Brian,

Fast Charging site. First, this implies a capacitor type electric car. No current battery charges at a rate I’d call “fast”.

Second, the likely high voltage would be 480V, 3 phase. The danger of electrocution at higher voltages just seems too great. (Have you ever seen the care with which 6,900V power is connected to a motor? I have, it is impressive).

For a vehicle to be charged with the energy of 40 Hp x 4 hours operation @ 90% efficiency

40 hp x 4 hr x .746 kw/hp = 119.4 Kw-hr

119.4/0.90 Eff = 133 Kw-hr

Therefore the amperage for a 480V, 3 phase feed would be: (V*A=W)

3^0.5 x 480V x A = 133,000 Watts (for one hour charge) [square root of 3 (3^0.5) is factor for 3 phase AC power]

A= 160 Amps

Therefore, to charge in 5 min. = 60/5 x .16 = 1,920 Amp (big wires, eh)

The next common industrial voltage, 4160V, 3 phase, is a bit dangerous for the general public (no self service), but possible with care and good engineering (but don’t knick the insulation on the cables…)

3^0.5 x 4160V x A = 133,000 Watts, A= 18.5 amps

So, to charge in 5 min. = 222 amps.

So when you talk about fast charging an electric car, consider plugging in a 4 thousand volt, 200 amp cable, and reaching for the “on” switch….

Rematog

[Rematog]

Brian,

I think a lot of the funding for the first phase (first 5 to 10 years of deployment) would come from the traditional utilities. They will get most of the money from issuing bonds. After they start to deploy FF modules, self funding (from increased profits due to cost savings) can fund additional FF modules.

First of all, they will have the financial ability to put down big deposits for them, right away. The political climate and the financial paybacks, as you mentioned, will drive them.

Think about this. Almost every voter gets their electricity from a utility, either public or investor owned. So the political pressure will be to have this be a high priority for the first 200,000 or so FF modules (at 5 MW ea) that can be purchased in the US. Especially in the first five years of deployment, I would foresee the demand for modules far exceeding the ability of factories to make them.

I believe it will be at least ten years after the first commercial FF module is sold before there is not a waiting list for FF module deliveries.

This has happened during “booms” in the history of the utility industry. During the mid 90’s, you could make a profit selling delivery “places in line” for gas turbines. I would expect that “rationing” of the available FF modules so that consumers across the country benefit will take place, whether formally or informally.

Outside of the US, it will be similar. I would also expect the Third world, despite it’s great need, to be one of the last to get them. They will have to wait till the US/Europe/Developed Asia (China-Japan-Korea) have theirs before many FF modules would be available to the rest of the world. Real-politic.

[Rematog]

Actually, a single dominate technology is very common.

Piston type steam engines totally replaced by steam turbines.

Internal combustion engines for vehicles (still over 99% of market. Note, Hybrids use in IC engine as primary energy source).

Internal combusion engines totally replace by gas turbines in large aircraft (either turbo-prop or turbo-fans).

The transister and it’s (current) ultimate developement, the silicon chip integrated circuit, totally dominate the computer industry. How many devices use vacuum tubes today?

Hard drives, one basic technology. Compact Disc/DVD/Blue-ray, all one basic tech.

We use what works best, and forget the rest. How many people today can chip a flint knife?

[Rematog]

I must agree with Brian et. al. Regardless of whether the capital cost is $200/kw (my guess-timate) or $60/kw, I know of no other power supply option that comes close to these low costs (both are dang low).

AND…we all agree operating costs will be relatively low. We just disagree on how low. But, if FF becomes technically possible, I see no reason that it shouldn’t totally dominate the electrical power and industrial process heat markets.

If FF becomes technically possible, wind, solar (except for small remote applications), wave, tide, geothermal, and of course conventional steam turbine (whether fossil fuel or fission heat makes the steam) are all dead end technologies.

[Rematog]

eh?

The reference in the post I was referring to was to the current cost of an uranium fission plant. Not the cost of Focus Fusion. Sorry if this was confusing.

Rematog

[Rematog]

Just reading through this thread, and…

Viking Coder’s post on prior page uses capital cost of $300k / 5MW of Focus Fusion. This is not correct. This number is what Mr. Lerner, has, in other posts, stated as the cost to make a FF module. That is NOT an installed cost.

I’m know I’ve stated this elsewhere, but it will cost money to install them. We might disagree on what the cost split is, but basic rule of thumb estimates used professionally for this type of work is between 60/40 and 40/60 for materials (FF module) and installation cost. This back calculates to an installed cost of between $500k and $750k per module total installed cost.

I see so many bad estimates done due to ignoring installation costs, and the results are generally ugly. I would urge the board to use installed costs in this kind of discussion.

By the way, $1/watt is way low for a fission plant. I would feel that between $2-2.5K per kw capacity would be more in line.

Coal, which is cheaper to build than nucs’s, currently runs about $1,500/kw, based on a couple of year old project I was involved with ($1.1 billion for a 750MW unit). That price included SCR, wet scrubber and carbon injection baghouse, the back end air pollution control equipment needed to capture NOX, SO2 and Mercury/particulate, respectively.

[Rematog]

Just posting this as an example of what kind of infrastructure we are talking about here….

This is from POWER magazine, one of the two main trade magazines for the Electrical power industry.

European body calls for heavy grid investment over next five years

Transmission service operators in Europe should devote about $26.52 billion to grid development over the next five years to ensure security and meet European energy policy objectives, the Union for the Coordination of Transmission of Electricity (UCTE) said last week.

The Brussels-based UCTE, which coordinates the interests of transmission system operators in 24 European countries, seeks to guarantee the security of the interconnected power system. The body recently published its first transmission development plan (PDF), which surveys cross-border and internal investments that have so far been submitted to member transmission service operators.

Taking into account expected decommissioning of plants and 80 GW of expected wind power, the UCTE projects that installed capacity in Europe will exceed 220 GW while consumption for the same period will increase only 90 GW.

But if consumption follows this low growth rate

[Rematog]

Brian,

To me, your comment on the “Iron Law of Bureaucracy” supports my position that Focus Fusion will be carefully regulated in the initial deployment stage. It will take time to (force the) change to the way the NRC does things.

[Rematog]

As far as defining “proven”.

A pilot plant shows that the system works as claimed and that the construction costs are (or are not) as anticipated. Usually this also involves scale-up issues, but this would be less of a factor with a modular technology such as focus fusion.

The Permits and siting assumptions I stated above assumed that a pilot plant proved that the performance claims made on this board are demonstrated, including environmental impact, safety and to a lesser degree, cost.

But I really don’t see the following reaction. “A pilot plant that has operated successfully and safely for 6 months, this now means that the NRC, politicians, banks, industry, insurance companies and the general public now accept Focus Fusion REACTORS being placed anywhere/everywhere any developer with $XXX,XXX dollars want to put one, AND we allow unattended operation with security being a padlock and alarm system.”

I think the following statement will be more likely true: “Thousands of FF modules have been operating for 5 (or 10) years and have a near perfect track record for safety and reliability. We (NRC, politicians, banks, industry insurance companies and the general public) are comfortable with relaxing restrictions to allow these REACTORS to be placed at sites that are not near homes, schools etc. but are in urban areas. But we still want to make sure that the opeators are responsible, knowledgable that have the resources to keep this good record going.”

[Rematog]

Actually, I think we have two factors on this issue.

First is how “strict” the regulation will be. Second is what each of us view’s as strict.

I would call how a current fission plant is regulated as “strict”. I don’t see this being the case for FF.

This is what I would see as the “regulation” for the first 5-10 years (while it is new and unproven, see below).

Site: (not NRC so much as state/local regs). Limits to how much population can be within a certain radius. My low end is a 1 mile radius, may be higher. Would require warning alarm for radiation leakage.

Operations and Security: I feel the NRC would require 24/7/365 on-site operators and security. Don’t think you’d be required to have the SWAT team. Building required to contain any radiation leakage, but not have the massive strength of a fission plant containment dome.

Other: Standard air/water/wetlands/construction permits required. If new site, would need an environmental impact statement. Would have to meet OSHA requirements for operations staff.

Business/Financial: While not “regulation” in the sense of rules of law, the factor’s of how business is done and why, do constrain how things happen.

If installed by for profit corporation, esp if publicly traded company, there would need to be the usually cost/operations guarantees. The FF power module manufacturer would need to guarantee the output, the required inputs (fuel, cooling water), environmental effects (emissions of gases, waste heat, radiation, etc) and to some degree the amount of maintenance required. The Engineering and Construction companies that design and build the complete facility would have to guarantee the overall cost to build and total system performance (including things like cooling water usage).

The actual owner avoids most of the risk involved in purchasing/building the facility. The owner gets the risks involved with running it. The lending institutions (banks/bond holders etc.) that finance a lot of the cost, INSIST on this risk avoidance.

If the owner is a utility or public agency, this changes more in the details. Neither of these types of owner is generally willing to take much of the risk for a project’s development.

All of the above is true even if distributed. Does a building owner take the risk for the air conditioning system working in a new building. No. The supplier is responsible for the equipment working (we call that a warranty) and the designer/builder for the system working (has power, air ducts correct, thermostats work, system cools evenly and controllable). There is a bank with a mortgage on the building. I’ve not been involved with this type of project, but I’d fall out of my chair in shock to find out that the bank just gives the owner a check and says “Have it built by anyone you want, any way you want, and we don’t care if there is anyone liable for it being built right.” I doubt is a bank commits to loan money for a major building until the bids for the design and construction are in hand and have been reviewed by the Bank’s engineer. I’ve known some Bank’s engineers, they were sharp fellows.

[Rematog]

And just because it can and I believe will, be used in weapons systems, does not imply I think it will make war more likely, or more dangerous. Or that FF is “Bad” or should be avoided.

I agree that reducing the importance of oil and providing cheaper, more abundant energy will GREATLY reduce world tensions. And reductions in poverty that would be a “byproduct” of FF will also make for a more peaceful and less violent world.

These are all good things.

But we are a long way from a “Star Trek” utopia and military force is a fact of life. And this is not always just the military force used by legitimate governments. Even tiny groups (Oklahoma City bomber) can use force.

[Rematog]

Mr. Lerner,

I never called you a fool..I said that only fool would think that there would be NO military applications.

I admit “satillite battle stations” are pie in the sky…today.

But, use of a new, small (relatively) power source for ships and most importantly, submarines, is obvious. As has been pointed out, the magnetic field may be a handicap. I don’t know if this could be shielded or not. But if it could be, it would be revolutionary in it’s allowing smaller, cheaper, very quiet and fast subs.

Yes, we have long range aircraft. But as I pointed out, most nations don’t have mid-air refueling.

And just mining and smelting uranium ore is within the abilites of any nation with the ore to mine, unlike the very much more technically challenging and expensive process of enrichment. And if a commerially available and very common FF module could be “perverted” to make dangerously hot materials… then it just provides another tool for twisted minds.

This is not to say I’m against FF, but I pointing out things to think about. Nothing human is perfect.

Military technology is a means of applying energy. For most of history this has been musele. First human, then animal (horse), First directly (hit with club), then stored (bow) or leveraged (spear thrower). Modern history has seen the addition of chemical (gunpower, then dynemite, cordite, TNT), wind (sails), steam (wood, then coal then oil), intermal combustion (piston engines then gas turbines) and finally nuclear fission and fusion.

I see no reason to believe that the “data point” of Focus Fusion will not be on this “trend line”.

[Rematog]

Brian,

There is a vast middle ground between being “hyper-regulated” and being able to do anything you want. We are all regulated to a greater or lesser degree in what we do. We all get a drivers license in order to be able to drive a car. That drivers license places limits on how we drive and requires us to do things (pass a test) before we can drive.

Industrial facilities are (and I think should be) regulated in a number of ways. Focus Fusion is an “industrial facility” that happens to also be a nuclear (fusion) technology.

So when I state that, especially in the initial deployment phase, Focus Fusion will be licensed by the NRC, and that I think that license will require site security, this is not implying that “special interests” are attempting to “kill” the technology. I believe that Focus Fusion can be a massive success even if it’s initial deployment is not done the way you feel is best, i.e. highly distributed (and un-regulated).

This debate is starting to remind me of my only encounter with Scientology. They kept saying “no, you don’t understand, you have to think this way…”

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