How it is going to change

[Breakable]

Just an idea:
http://i.imgur.com/VJvKm.png
how this is going to change when we are on fusion power?

[dennisp]

Short-term, I hope we’re smart enough to reduce the military budget significantly when we don’t have to fight over resources so much. Maybe we’ll actually do it, if we can transition contractors to space-related activities.

Long-term, I’m guessing the space budget gets a lot bigger than the current military budget, but it’s mostly in the private sector. Things like asteroid mining are easy to make profitable when you can get to space for thirty bucks a pound.

The military budget gets bigger, and mostly space-based, to make sure none of those miners drop asteroids on us.

[Breakable]

I really hope you can get to reduce the military budget until fusion power is out, or otherwise it will just grow 200 times. The straightforward reasoning is this:
we have more resources to defend, so others have more resources to attack, so we need to increase our defense spending.
On the other hand, if it does not grow 200 times, then fusion powered North Korea can take over the rest of the world.

[dennisp]

But the question will be: Is it cheaper for others to try to steal our resources, or to go to space and get their own?

The solar system has millions of times the resources of the Earth. It’ll be a long time before fighting over them will be cheaper than going after the stuff that’s still free for the taking.

[Breakable]

dennisp wrote: …
The solar system has millions of times the resources of the Earth. It’ll be a long time before fighting over them will be cheaper than going after the stuff that’s still free for the taking.

You clearly did not play any Starcraft 2 😉

[Aeronaut]

High ground is a strategic advantage that the military will not willingly yield.

[dennisp]

True. I gotta say, I’m getting tired of seeing military bases on all the mountaintops.

But there’s more than one country…will America shoot down Chinese spacecraft to keep the high ground? Not if they want to avoid nuclear war.

Will the military in every country have enough political pull to stop civilian space industry? I bet not. Once launch costs are low, any country that opens space to private industry will quickly outpace countries that don’t. It’ll be the biggest economic boom in history, but only for those who participate. Those who do participate will be able to afford much larger militaries.

NASA is already getting out of the launch business and turning it over to private companies.

[Brian H]

I once saw a statement that a 1-mi diameter nickel-iron asteroid in Earth orbit would be easily mined, as the materials are already substantially fractionated, and the precious metals would equal the total mined from the crust in all history to date. Worth about $1,000,000 per capita for the whole planet at today’s prices. That’s >6 Quad$$.

Even if the value dropped, it would still finance a full-out space exploration industry, and just about anything else.

I guess the question is whether anyone (nation(s) or whoever) would try to deny space access to anyone else.

[Aeronaut]

Military aviation didn’t wait for the Wright brothers, and even today it’s a tiny percentage of aviation. I’m sure the same will hold for space travel, as long as we can keep the Spice Guild from forming their monopoly.

[vansig]

dennisp wrote: But the question will be: Is it cheaper for others to try to steal our resources, or to go to space and get their own?

The solar system has millions of times the resources of the Earth. It’ll be a long time before fighting over them will be cheaper than going after the stuff that’s still free for the taking.

hopefully, once you have fusion, it will be cheaper to recycle resources than to steal ours

[Brian H]

@breakable;
Everyone will have access to FF more or less simultaneously, as Eric is going to sell licenses to all comers. So people will be very busy expanding their own “resources” and economies for some time. But most wars are not about “resources”. Just power.

[Author]

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