Cost of Focus Fusion Power Plant

[rashidas]

Has anyone come up with cost estimates or budgets of a proposed FF power plant? How much would the capital cost and operating costs be for starting such a plant from scratch? Can an existing power plant be modified using aneutronic technology? Remember no matter how environmental attractive focus fusion might be it has to compete in the real world with existing energy prodcution facilities.

[Aeronaut]

rashidas wrote: Has anyone come up with cost estimates or budgets of a proposed FF power plant? How much would the capital cost and operating costs be for starting such a plant from scratch? Can an existing power plant be modified using aneutronic technology? Remember no matter how environmental attractive focus fusion might be it has to compete in the real world with existing energy prodcution facilities.

LPP’s lab can be cloned and staffed for less than $1M/yr, reinforcing estimates of $200k to $300k to manufacture but not ship a FF system. Installed price is to be at or below $1M installed and presumably commissioned (operating) in return for 5MW to 20MW per unit. This should make it a no-brainer, even if a quarterly core-swap overhaul model costs $4M annually.

Ideal locations are in former factories since they’re so close to existing regional transmission lines, which a FF power plant can effectively double the number of by splicing a Tee into each and every one of them. Other ideal locations are french fry crinkling factories and any place with gas pumps, a huge energy bill to whip into shape, and the associated EPA regulatory exposure, which I expect pending legislation to make even more expensive.

[Tulse]

The earliest adopters of successful FF will likely be the military, as they have a lot of infrastructure in un- and under-developed locations (and which are under less stringent regulatory oversight) that need inexpensive and easily transportable power generation. FF would also be a huge boon to the electrification of military assets in general, such as ships (which are pressing for electric solutions both for propulsion and weapons such as railguns and lasers).

My guess is that a basic FF system could fit in a standard shipping container or two. With something that transportable, actual price becomes less of an issue.

[zapkitty]

… at the oft-given single dpf dimensions of 2 meters x 3 meters it’d be more like 2 dpfs per standard 20 foot container… so most likely 1 per container (1-2 cores running off of 1 set of caps) and whatever support and cooling/heat transfer gear is needed to make it a turnkey power solution… could a standard 40′ container hold a 20 MW setup?…

[Aeronaut]

The US Navy is already backing Polywell, which may actually be better suited for their needs. If we supply the US military, I’d be betting on the Army and Air Force, with the Marines as a relatively small player due to their rapid movements and smaller overall number of bases. Taken as a group, the US government, embassies, and military bases could power a lot of the developing world (including the US) with a “good enough” shield (not quite below background radiation) so it, the switching gear, and a transmission transformer might fit in a 40′ shipping container. Burying the containers would limit neutron exposure to perhaps 90 degrees or less with very little effort.

[Tulse]

Aeronaut wrote: The US Navy is already backing Polywell, which may actually be better suited for their needs.

How so? I presume that, although the Navy may be funding EMC2 currently, they will take whatever fusion solution they can get. And Polywell (theoretically) works best at large sizes, while the Navy does have smaller craft it may want powered. Plus, FF runs off huge capacitors, which would also be handy for dumping power into the railguns the Navy is planning.

I’d also guess that, regardless of current funding, if one of the major alt.fusion frontrunners succeed, there may not be much room in the market for further research on a different unproven approach. I think “first-to-market” advantage here is going to be huge, since any aneutronic solution will be vastly better than what currently exists, and any additional aneutronic solution will be only a marginal relative improvement.

[Aeronaut]

Any way you slice it, military funding= classified information, proof of competitive advantage that we would have sold on the cheap. They seem to like polywell for its scalability.

Once aneutronic fusion is proven, I’m assuming that several groups are going to want alternative reactor designs like PW and CBFR for their own niches and other reasons. Put another way, would somebody else’s success end my involvement with FF? No. It’d be further proof that aneutronic does work!

[Tulse]

Aeronaut wrote: They seem to like polywell for its scalability.

I’d think the modularity of FF would have an advantage over polywell — with FF, one has scalability in effect “on the fly”. With polywell, the scalability results in each individual reactor being a specific size, and having to be constructed at that size, while with FF, one can produce identical small units and gang them together. (That also reduces problems of maintenance and even combat survivability — a problem with one or a few FF units doesn’t mean all power is lost.)

[dennisp]

“if one of the major alt.fusion frontrunners succeed, there may not be much room in the market for further research on a different unproven approach.”

I tend to think if one of them works, fusion will be the next big bubble, with plenty of money available for anyone who has a potentially competitive approach. Or a good application.

[Aeronaut]

Tulse, as a Navy vet, I can see them approaching FF like a diesel engine- to power backup generators or small boats, for instance. Ship engines have traditionally required a certain size and “wow” factor to be credible. ‘Sides, you saw how they tried to lock up all experimental data and sort of imply that the theory can be classified. I say sell it to the military just like a diesel engine- particularly the intellectual property rights!

Dennis, I like the related apps & solutions bubble scenario. Fits the dot com bubble to a tee, and it’s been long enough ago to repeat.

[Brian H]

Aeronaut wrote: Tulse, as a Navy vet, I can see them approaching FF like a diesel engine- to power backup generators or small boats, for instance. Ship engines have traditionally required a certain size and “wow” factor to be credible. ‘Sides, you saw how they tried to lock up all experimental data and sort of imply that the theory can be classified. I say sell it to the military just like a diesel engine- particularly the intellectual property rights!

Dennis, I like the related apps & solutions bubble scenario. Fits the dot com bubble to a tee, and it’s been long enough ago to repeat.

I don’t much like the “bubble” terminology, as that signifies something full of hot air, which will burst when pricked by reality. The FF Revolution will be no bubble. It will be a Surge! Of long duration.

[Aeronaut]

Tidal surge, no doubt. Its going to leave a lot of wreckage in the process of sorting out the real companies.

[Brian H]

Aeronaut wrote: Tidal surge, no doubt. Its going to leave a lot of wreckage in the process of sorting out the real companies.

It will free up a LOT of funds for its own implementation and a whole lot of other things which have been put on the back burner (or given up on).

[Aeronaut]

I can’t wait for all of the bargains on production facilities!

[tcg]

Aeronaut’s figures look attractive. If they hold up and if FF proves out, the first place I would think to go would be my own City Council which recently consolidated with our water district. We are right on the Pacific Ocean but rely on often scanty snowpack in the Rockies one thousand miles away for our water supply. Pitching an unrestricted supply of cheap water made independent of conventional sources by using reverse osmosis and a FF generator may be an easy sell. There are many other cities in my state who might find such an opportunity attractive.

The second place I would think to go would be Pacific Gas and Electric, the local monster electric company. Although they don’t generate all the electricity they sell, the chance to lower their generation costs, secure the advantages of distributed generation, and look like heroes by lowering rates (a bit) could be hard to pass up. Outfits like this could be very large scale purchasers. They would have to know that if they didn’t jump at the chance themselves, someone else would and use PG&E infrastructure to make a huge profit.

The third would be any factory which uses substantial electrical power and has to fight for a slim profit margin. The prototype for this is a frozen food producer near me who would probably jump at a chance to lower the cost of running his freezers constantly. I couldn’t begin to count how many such businesses are in my state, but it’s a lot.

There is, of course, a big “if” in this, but if it works, the driving force of FF will have to shift from scientists and engineers to salesmen who have a lot of technical savvy. Opportunities will be limited only by imagination.

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