Reply To: Questions regarding DPF.

[Rezwan]

Science is messy. Not instantaneous and certain. With GW, many of the issues go well beyond science, and it’s not about the science at all, but the politics, values, perceived threats.

Maybe, instead of thinking about consensus, we can look at this as a prisoner’s dilemma-type situation.

Start with the layman prisoner who has no intention of wading through all the data and come to a reasoned conclusion. So here’s the prisoner, trapped with some shrill, nasty guards (people who argue about GW: GW cop and GW denialist (GWD) cop).

They’re each offering some kind of deal.

So, you can take GW’s deal, and GW is right. Or take GW’s deal, but GWD was right.
Or go with GWD but he’s wrong, or go with GWD and he’s right.

What’s really at stake in each of these scenarios?

I doubt it’s possible to come to a consensus about that, either, or to even envision the scenarios. There are so many variables. Laws may be passed, substitutions made. Or not. And also, both cops may be “wrong” in many other unforseen ways, or eclipsed by other concerns, like an internet meltdown. And for all the fear of GW laws crippling the economy – how does that compare to the impact of the housing bubble and other wall street fiascos? I think we can cripple ourselves just fine in so many other ways.

Put another way, say you’re a born-again Christian. But then you find out, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that Jesus was just a guy, not the son of God, and so your entire faith is unfounded. (This is, of course, not true. Jesus lives, folks! Or not – this is not the forum to argue the matter)

The question here has nothing to do with whether or not church doctrine (or any specific offshoot) is correct.

The question is only – how would you live your life differently if you believed x instead of y.

If you ask most people this, they wouldn’t live much differently, because their values are still the same and they chose that doctrine because it resonated with their values.

The arguments about specific doctrines are mostly smoke. But for some reason easier to talk about than values.