Reply To: Questions regarding DPF.

[Brian H]

Breakable wrote:
Would it surprise you to hear that some of those “scenarios” that were modeled in eighties and nineties are playing out quote well? As well as a weekly prediction of weather. So probably those unverified and untestable guesses are true in those particular scenarios and if nothing is changed those scenarios will likely remain true.
But I guess you would not be interested. So I guess I will shut the **** up, and you can placate your “coal is good” all over the forums again.

Retro-casting is useful for generating speculations and eventually hypotheses. Actual predictions require full disclosure of model variables and algorithms, plus input data set, which are then frozen (no touch, no fiddle) for the duration of the prediction. A reasonable fit fails to disprove the forecast model; a failure invalidates it completely (since the specific reason can only be guessed at — for which you need a brand new square one re-prediction and test.) Enough failures to disprove, despite best (honest) efforts, and you MAY begin to put some reliance on the model.

None of the Warmist scenario-games meet any of those criteria.