Reply To: Questions regarding DPF.

[AaronB]

This has been an interesting conversation. Let me add my 2 cents.

Everything that is or happens in the universe can be roughly categorized into hardware, software, and people. Hardware is the physical world of materials, machines, resources, infrastructure, etc. Software is the collection of ideas, rules, laws, contracts, customs, beliefs, fears, values, policies, etc. People are the ones who connect the hardware and software. In the example of driving, we have roads, street signs, and cars. We also have rules of the road, speed limits, etc. Finally, we have people who are supposed to follow the rules. In a perfect world, there would be no car wrecks because the roads would be in perfect condition, signs would be properly places, cars would never blow tires, and people would never be distracted or drunk while driving. However, even the most ideal, fool-proof hardware setup can be defeated by the die-hard fool, the black swan.

Risks are all the possible things that can go wrong. While all may be possible, most will not be probable. With limited resources, engineers and planners usually try to mitigate (not eliminate) the worst risks while not blowing their budget. The probable consequences can lead to degradation, but not failure. That’s acceptable risk. When building homes, planners take into account 25, 50, and 100-year floods. They can’t control the floods, or even predict when they will hit, but it quantifies the risk and time-averages the chance of complete wipeout. But, however the risks are quantified, people will blow right through warning signs, restrictions, safety protocols, and basic common sense.

So, how does that relate to global warming or climate change? To me, climate change is something that is happening and always has happened. Sort of like turns in the road happen. Scientists try to quantify the turns in the road to best prepare to compensate. It’s really hard to guess how the road will turn based on past turns in the road. It is harder to predict the weather and climate. Hurricane tracking still uses spaghetti models that are different, and lead to different predictions. The more factors we can see and understand, the better we can predict and take steps to mitigate problems.

So, do I believe in climate change? Sure. Do I know and can I accurately quantify the many factors? Nope. Can I predict how and why it will change? Nope. Can I take reasonable steps to protect myself in case of sea level rise, desertification, etc? Absolutely. Will climate change be a bad thing? For some. Will it be a good thing? For some. Are there other risks in my life that are more immediate, quantifiable, and potentially catastrophic? Yes. Personally, I’m more worried about global energy supplies running low within my lifetime, the fractional-reserve money base and 60 trillion dollars in derivatives collapsing in the next decade, and the widening division of classes and have/have-nots causing riots and wars in the next 5 years. But that’s just me.