Reply To: Nuplex.

[Rematog]

Brian,

You’re right that the need to stay competitive will require the US and Europe to adopt FF when it is commercially available. And that will put pressure on the regulatory agencies and reduce (not eliminate) the requirements they place on siteing FF modules.

The case you mentioned, remote areas, high cost is due to two factors. First, most of these type of small power systems are using a diesel engine as prime mover. So fuel and engine maintenance costs, per Kw, are high. Second, the economy of scale factor. A small power company, like a “mom and pop” store, would have a large labor cost compared to it’s sales, resulting in higher prices.

FF would, for larger remote areas, would be possible. For the smaller ones, the cost of the FF generator ($1 million or so installed) would be large compared to the cost of say a 500 hp diesel gen-set. And the service needs would be difficult to supply to a remote area. So, I’d guess these small remote places wouldn’t be in the first round of adapters. But small cities would be. Another example would be islands. In both cases, you still have to keep an electrical distribution system working as well.

I’ve always agreed that FF, if it becomes commercial, would be quickly adapted. The difference is that I’ve maintained two things:

1). The rapid deployment of FF is not contingent on it being used in a highly distributed manner (individual buildings, shopping mall, neighborhoods, etc). This is counter indicated by both the economic and regulatory real world. I’ve posted my reasons for this before, but to summarize briefly:

Economics: The capital cost would be less, per module, to install many on the same site. Existing power plants would offer additional savings by re-using some of the existing faculties (site, cooling, buildings etc). The maintenance costs, per module would be greatly less on a large site, as no travel time and costs (trucks, fuel etc) would be involved. I’m assuming all pay their people the same wages.

Regulatory: The modules, being a nuclear reactor which generates X-rays, will require licenses, and in my judgment, for the first 10-20 years, this license would require security and on-site supervision. Also, the NIMBY factor will prevent them from being placed in urban (or suburban) locations.

2) The definition of quickly is not 2-3 years, but 10-20 years. Yes, first generation (pun intended) FF modules will begin rolling out of factories 6-9 months after licenses are granted. Production rates will increase rapidly and be at high levels in 2-3 years.

But, lets look at how many will be needed. In the US alone, based on DOE figures for 2007, Coal, Oil, Gas and Nuclear (fission) plants totaling 956,250 MW were installed, out of a total installed capacity of 1,087,791 MW (hydro, wind, solar, biomass being the other types). If capacity growth of just 2% on average is calculated then the additional generation for 20 years from say, 2010 to 2029 is 527,330 MW (remember to start in 2007, then look at 2010 to 2029). By dividing by 5 MW per module, this yields a total demand for FF modules, for electric power alone, of 296,716 modules. This means production, installation and commissioning of 15,000 modules per year. If you project 4% growth (remember, power is getting cheaper, so demand goes up), and replace all power generation with FF, then this goes up to 515,595 modules, or over 25,000 per year.

On second though, 10 years after full scale production for complete replacement of existing generation might be achievable. That would still only require a total investment of around $50 billion per year (at $1M / module), a doable number.

So Eric, when can I buy a license?