The whole issue of the division of demand between new users and replacement of existing plant is very interesting, of course. Here’s one way to approach it: given a budget for continued operation, maintenance and upgrade of existing plant (coal, gas, hydro, whatever), there would often be points at which it would make more sense to deflect those funds into buying and setting up FF replacement sourcing. I think those decision points might just become more and more frequent as time goes on, till the entire network is replaced. After all, any other plant, even continuing with no new capital costs, will be economically uncompetitive with FF, and hence a financial drag on the operator or utility.
