Reply To: Mind, Spirit, Science connection?

[Rezwan]

You say above that China has “initiated a research and development project in Thorium…” That tends to mean that it doesn’t actually work yet.

How does their R&D schedule and issues compare to the Bill Gates proposal noted in the TED talk?

Bill also enthused about the way Terrapower uses spent uranium and turns a problem into a solution, but then asks “Why haven’t we heard of this before” and answers himself with:

Innovation really stopped in this industry quite some time ago. The idea that there are some good ideas laying around is not all that surprising.

People had talked about it for a long time, but they could never simulate properly whether it would work or not, and so it’s through the advent of modern supercomputers that now you can simulate and see that yes, with the right materials approach, this looks like it would work.”

Scale of Investment:

Scale of investment: To do the software, supercomputer, hire great scientists – only tens of millions. Even once we test our materials out in a Russian reactor to make sure that the materials work properly, then you’ll only be Hundreds of millions. The tough thing is building a pilot reactor, Several billion, regulator, location. Once you get the first one built, and it works as advertised, then it’s plain as day – the economics, energy density are so different than nuclear as we know it.

Time of investment:

Time scale: 20 years to invent, 20 to deploy. [Fission in 40 years! Where have I heard that before – oh- fusion.] Terrapower, if things go well, which is wishing for a lot, could easily meet that.

“If things go well.” Is there a similar uncertainty factor with the MSR’s?

Bill seems to think that there is enough uncertainty in fission all around to warrant HUNDREDS of similar R&D projects launched. Perhaps Thorium MSR was one such. He says:

There are, fortunately now, dozens of companies, we need it to be hundreds, who likewise, if their science goes well, if the funding for their pilot plants goes well, that they can compete for this. And it’s best if multiples succeed, because then you could use a mix of these things. We certainly need one to succeed.

So, again, is Bill foolishly overlooking the already functional thorium reactor? Can he just drop the terrapower and go snap up a Thorium reactor today? I feel some information is missing here.