Reply To: Military Effects

[asymmetric_implosion]

Most of the article is pretty accurate talking about NIF and ITER. Fusion has a horrible reputation of meeting expectations and proposed deadlines even after they have been extended more than once. Even DOE is losing faith as they are not fighting to defend budgets in the face of R&D cuts. I think the public, politicians and fellow scientists are tired of empty promises of limitless energy while pouring money down a sink hole.

I can understand the dig at LPP and Tri-alpha being not nice but look at it from the outside. Have dates slipped on FoFu-1? Are unexpected problems slowing progress that should not be a problem (switches, arcing, etc)? It seems to be walking a similar path as the other projects. One might argue that all projects slip on the timeline and unexpected things happen but I would argue that at the end of the day people remember success over slipped dates. When failure is all you have to offer, slipping dates become a real problem. I sympathize with the problems of the plasma focus. I’ve had my share and I was trying to make a neutron source which is easy by comparison.

I agree that fusion is hard but I don’t know if it is possible using known and possible approaches (leave the gravity generator out of it). If possible, is it economically viable? Don’t know. I’ve done some back of the envelope math a couple times that shows it is difficult without big leaps in key components that may or may not be possible.

One can argue that outside forces like big oil are conspiring against fusion. Why would they? Fusion enjoyed a healthy budget and some of the best minds trying a myriad of approaches for over fifty years (yes, the DPF is in that list as Livermore tried to ride that pony back in the 70’s) without success. It comes down to how to measure potential. The upside of fusion his huge, but the downsides are many. Everyone needs to balance the potential for themselves. Charles Seife see more downsides than up. Sadly, the experimental data seems to support his position.