Reply To: Energy Output – MW & GW

[Impaler]

From my perspective their are three tiers of fusion ‘concepts’ that are distinguished not by their chance of technical success near or short term but rather by their cost range as a mature technology.

A good comparison might be the Steam engine, Internal combustion engine and Jet Turbine engine, they all do basically the same thing, turn hydrocarbons into rotary motion, but the power-2-weight ratios are such that their is virtually no overlap. The crudest simplest Internal combustion engine has more power density then any Steam engine, and likewise the simplest Jet turbine blows away the best Internal combustion engine. The tokamak and Inertial confinement systems are like Steam Engines, they will at best be very expensive and require obscene capitol investments. The other ‘indie’ concepts like poly-well, General Fusion etc are more like Internal combustion engines, they could undercut the price of the Steam engine level technology, but Focus Fusion stands alone as the Jet turbine of Fusion concept because it alone is not a heat engine which means it can undercut everything else on price and capitol cost once mature.

This is important because it means LPP would still have a viable business model developing FF if the tomorrow aliens descended from the sky and told humans exactly how to make a tokamak or Inertial confinement system that would yield net energy well into the optimistic range of what their developers hope for. Because that would effectively be like having a ‘good’ turn of the century steam engine their would be plenty of room to undercut and supplant it with a better technology. In fact I would expect interest and investment to INCREASE into all alternative fusion concepts, once their is one type of viable fusion it will stimulate the demand for Cheaper fusion. The reverse is not the case though, if FF or any of those middle tier alternatives comes to market first the tokomak folks are just Screwed as their concept can never hope to be competitive in any way, but I wouldn’t be surprised if shear inertia carries them years further.