Correct me if I’m wrong in my understanding of the Black Swan, but what was “just” an exploding oil rig killing some workers has now turned into more of a Black Swan type of event, including birds and other animals soiled black with oil. If I follow Taleb’s narrative, some institutionalized thinking may have to change with this event, depending on how it plays out. Regulations for undersea oil drilling were engaged voluntarily, meaning the industry could police itself. Thus they didn’t have to put all the available safeguards in place. I see the powerlaw view coming into play though in another way as well, because of this event more people may lean toward another source of energy besides oil drilled in the ocean. They might want to see fission nuclear plants developed more rapidly, though the catastrophic failures with those could be profoundly worse.

Environmental issues must be a pain to have to take into account, especially if you’re dealing with energy. But it is a reality one has to accept this day and age, whether or not you accept GW. Likewise environmentalists have to accept that scientists and engineers figure into solutions to issues of technology in this modern world. There’s now a mutual exchange that goes on, codified into law between the people and the scientific community. When we didn’t have that arrangement, rivers caught on fire from pollution, radiation leaked, oil covered the beaches. We don’t want to go back to those days. The problem with Global Warming is that it’s mostly invisible. We won’t know it’s really a problem ’till it’s too late to change. Being more energy efficient in the mean time doesn’t really hurt anything accept maybe some stockholders returns. Car pooling and mass transportation helps the traffic flow. By listening to some of what the environmentalists views are, is the world necessarily worse off? I also think it’s good to have them as friends when you’re trying to introduce a game changing energy technology imo. The Black Swan is an interesting perspective on how people view their world. I think collaborating and developing a greater network of people supporting what you’re doing, get’s you a greater chance of promoting ideas to a broader audience and might even help encourage thinking outside the box.

A picture of a Black Swan I took, coasting along in a brook in France: