Short-term, I hope we’re smart enough to reduce the military budget significantly when we don’t have to fight over resources so much. Maybe we’ll actually do it, if we can transition contractors to space-related activities.

Long-term, I’m guessing the space budget gets a lot bigger than the current military budget, but it’s mostly in the private sector. Things like asteroid mining are easy to make profitable when you can get to space for thirty bucks a pound.

The military budget gets bigger, and mostly space-based, to make sure none of those miners drop asteroids on us.

But the question will be: Is it cheaper for others to try to steal our resources, or to go to space and get their own?

The solar system has millions of times the resources of the Earth. It’ll be a long time before fighting over them will be cheaper than going after the stuff that’s still free for the taking.

High ground is a strategic advantage that the military will not willingly yield.

I once saw a statement that a 1-mi diameter nickel-iron asteroid in Earth orbit would be easily mined, as the materials are already substantially fractionated, and the precious metals would equal the total mined from the crust in all history to date. Worth about $1,000,000 per capita for the whole planet at today’s prices. That’s >6 Quad$$.

Even if the value dropped, it would still finance a full-out space exploration industry, and just about anything else.

I guess the question is whether anyone (nation(s) or whoever) would try to deny space access to anyone else.

dennisp wrote: But the question will be: Is it cheaper for others to try to steal our resources, or to go to space and get their own?

The solar system has millions of times the resources of the Earth. It’ll be a long time before fighting over them will be cheaper than going after the stuff that’s still free for the taking.

hopefully, once you have fusion, it will be cheaper to recycle resources than to steal ours