Focus Fusion Future’s market
(4) Comments
Discuss In ForumsA futures market has now been opened for Focus Fusion at Intrade.com under Scientific—Focus Fusion. Here is how the contract is phrased:
Will net power be generated using the Focus Fusion process?
Focus Fusion process to generate net power before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2014.
What’s so important about a futures market? Jim Trow explains: “Some people regard the futures markets (at least the ones where real money is involved) to be very accurate predictors of future events. They are certainly viewed that way with regard to elections in the USA.”
A futures market underscores the risky nature of the pursuit of focus fusion. At the same time, it will help to quantify that risk. And, it will turn the whole activity into an entertaining, interactive exercise. We have thus decided to list Focus Fusion on a futures market and let the speculation begin.
What can you do with this information? The folks at Intrade have said:
Would you anticipate anyone in your scientific community opening an account and trading this market? Due to the subject matter and length of the market we can’t rely on our current membership to generate activity and therefore fees (for us) and predictive information (for you).
The Contract Specific Rules
Focus Fusion is the process of aneutronic nuclear fusion with the Dense Plasma Focus using hydrogen boron fuel. The process is a potential source of cheap, waste-free electricity. Details of the process can be found HERE.
This contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if the Focus Fusion process is used to generate net power in a generator before midnight ET on the date specified in the contract.
The contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if the Focus Fusion process is not used to generate net power in a generator before midnight ET on the date specified in the contract.
Expiry will be based on the generation of net power in a generator using the Focus Fusion process, as reported by a peer-reviewed scientific journal.
Due to the nature of this contract please also see Contract Rule 1.7 Unforeseen Circumstances.
The Exchange reserves the right to invoke Contract Rule 1.8 (Time Protection) if deemed appropriate.
Any changes to the result after the contract has expired will not be taken into account - Exchange Rule 1.4
Here is the graph showing trading. (As of today, June 24, 2009, no trading yet.)
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Comments
Excellent PR move, Jimmy.
I was set to buy the first contract until I read all the deposit to account red tape. I’ll buy when they take PayPal.
Yeah, I’m not familiar with that mechanism they’re using.
I wrote to a noted sceptic about FF, Richard Hull, at Fusor Forums, and suggested he might like to skin some foolish FF supporters, & suggested he offer to sell at around 50ยข.
Aeronaut,
It is a great idea, but the credit both for the idea and the implementation of it belongs to Rezwan. I was merely comenting on it. Let’s give credit where credit is due!
Thanks Jimmy!
Maybe not such a great idea, though. No one’s buying it!
As to Paypal, Intrade says: “Unfortunately we are not able to take PayPal due to the restrictions placed on its use by the owners.” So you’ll be waiting for a while, Aeronaut.
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